Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Ondo West, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Ondo West has 80,892 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.68 GWp of roof capacity. 31% run a generator, and together they spend ₦43.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

80,892

Usable roof area

7.48 km²

1.68 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦43.2bn/yr

32.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ondo West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦43.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦42.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.29tn

NPV₦324bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy36.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity174 MWp

Capex₦180bn

Year-one energy value₦133bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.29tn

NPV₦1.03tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ondo West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 174 MWp
Capital cost: ₦180bn
Year 1 savings: ₦133bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.03tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ondo West pays back quickly

Of the 79,389 buildings in Ondo West with a modelled payback, 69.0% pay back inside five years and 28.5% inside three.

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How much of Ondo West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ondo West consume 76.8 GWh/yr but want 113 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ondo West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ondo West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 79,389 buildings with a modelled result out of 80,892 in Ondo West. 65,316 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years22,648 (29%)

Under 5 years54,816 (69%)

Under 7 years65,211 (82%)

Under 10 years70,845 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%70,059 (87%)

Above 15%65,316 (81%)

Above 20%58,112 (72%)

Above 25%33,981 (42%)

CO₂ avoided

82.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

36.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

403k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ondo West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ondo West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	43,381	15,477	₦22.7bn	₦22.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	20,946	3,401	₦8.46bn	₦7.85bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	14,272	5,433	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	2,293	784	₦196m	₦196m	23%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	79,197	24,191	₦37.5bn	₦36.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	647	283	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	431	257	₦3.23bn	₦3.17bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	291	200	₦138m	₦138m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	177	73	₦30m	₦30m	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	49	39	₦28.9m	₦28.9m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	44	27	₦77.7m	₦77.6m	39%	1.9 yr
Industrial	32	17	₦50.3m	₦49m	37%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	18	8	₦14.6m	₦14.6m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	5	0	₦3.16m	₦3.16m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦409k	₦409k	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	28,065	9,504	₦19.4bn	₦18.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	20,297	6,029	₦592m	₦590m	15%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	15,909	3,744	₦2.32bn	₦2.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	9,552	2,589	₦542m	₦542m	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	6,985	3,178	₦17.4bn	₦17.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	84	51	₦2.87bn	₦2.87bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	55,591	19,959	₦28.9bn	₦28.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	11,062	2,148	₦5.34bn	₦5.29bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	9,744	1,384	₦2.61bn	₦2.09bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	4,495	1,604	₦6.35bn	₦6.2bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	24,415	6,535	₦8.92bn	₦8.92bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	18,140	6,076	₦5.47bn	₦5.47bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	11,227	3,478	₦424m	₦424m	15%	6.9 yr
Residential Small	11,003	2,715	₦2.36bn	₦2.36bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	10,779	4,122	₦19.1bn	₦18.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	2,625	923	₦870m	₦870m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,008	342	₦319m	₦319m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	300	189	₦2.66bn	₦2.66bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	227	58	₦1bn	₦1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	216	105	₦45.3m	₦45.3m	33%	3.4 yr
Educational Facility	149	93	₦414m	₦414m	51%	2.1 yr
School	139	79	₦226m	₦226m	47%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	80,892	25,095	₦43.2bn	₦42.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	80,115	24,715	₦38.8bn	₦38.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	441	261	₦3.23bn	₦3.17bn	47%	2.4 yr
SME High	336	119	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	31,842	10,131	₦16.7bn	₦16.6bn
3.0	22,401	8,006	₦23bn	₦22.2bn
2.0	12,339	2,807	₦1.87bn	₦1.87bn
0.0	10,800	3,438	₦418m	₦418m
1.0	3,303	660	₦228m	₦228m
5.0	169	39	₦517m	₦517m
6.0	38	14	₦505m	₦505m