Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Owo, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Owo has 81,364 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.87 GWp of roof capacity. 36% run a generator, and together they spend ₦56.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

81,364

Usable roof area

8.31 km²

1.87 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦56.2bn/yr

49.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Owo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦56.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦55.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.94tn

NPV₦436bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy44.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity198 MWp

Capex₦195bn

Year-one energy value₦148bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.96tn

NPV₦1.15tn

Median IRR83%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Owo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 198 MWp
Capital cost: ₦195bn
Year 1 savings: ₦148bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.15tn
Median IRR: 83%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Owo pays back quickly

Of the 80,186 buildings in Owo with a modelled payback, 70.7% pay back inside five years and 34.8% inside three.

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How much of Owo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Owo consume 101 GWh/yr but want 146 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Owo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Owo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 80,186 buildings with a modelled result out of 81,364 in Owo. 65,227 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years27,893 (35%)

Under 5 years56,659 (71%)

Under 7 years65,179 (81%)

Under 10 years69,614 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%68,894 (85%)

Above 15%65,227 (80%)

Above 20%59,149 (73%)

Above 25%51,686 (64%)

CO₂ avoided

102 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

25.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

44.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

332k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Owo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Owo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	30,530	12,868	₦20.4bn	₦20.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	27,199	5,917	₦14.6bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	23,635	10,599	₦21.3bn	₦20.8bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	77,029	27,058	₦36.3bn	₦35.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,064	1,046	₦12.4bn	₦12.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,316	663	₦275m	₦275m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	442	317	₦6.15bn	₦6.04bn	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	428	245	₦512m	₦512m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	40	19	₦28.9m	₦28.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	37	33	₦504m	₦470m	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	3	0	₦1.27m	₦1.27m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	3	3	₦6.53m	₦6.53m	45%	2.4 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦371k	₦371k	29%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	25,427	9,918	₦16.7bn	₦16.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	20,413	6,776	₦745m	₦722m	15%	6.6 yr
50 100m2	14,710	3,800	₦2.08bn	₦1.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	10,521	3,187	₦651m	₦639m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	10,151	5,598	₦29.4bn	₦29bn	41%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	142	105	₦6.64bn	₦6.48bn	53%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	47,035	21,855	₦37bn	₦36.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	16,872	1,850	₦5.09bn	₦4.71bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	8,690	3,309	₦6.11bn	₦6.03bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	5,547	1,748	₦6.83bn	₦6.76bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	3,220	622	₦1.16bn	₦1.16bn	17%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	15,952	6,680	₦5.1bn	₦5.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	15,760	6,604	₦22.8bn	₦22.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	15,055	4,092	₦507m	₦507m	9%	9.6 yr
Residential Small	14,830	3,943	₦2.07bn	₦1.87bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	12,248	4,580	₦5.14bn	₦5.14bn	25%	4.1 yr
Apartment	2,533	893	₦530m	₦530m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,318	665	₦281m	₦281m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,154	508	₦7.47bn	₦7.34bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	649	266	₦183m	₦183m	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial	581	334	₦3.81bn	₦3.74bn	41%	2.6 yr
Institutional	369	240	₦4.78bn	₦4.78bn	43%	2.6 yr
School	158	119	₦473m	₦473m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	81,359	29,384	₦56.2bn	₦55.4bn
Farmland	5	0	₦35.2k	₦35.2k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	79,145	28,207	₦38.8bn	₦38.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,739	843	₦11.3bn	₦11.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	480	334	₦6.16bn	₦6.05bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	25,946	10,340	₦28.3bn	₦27.9bn
4.0	25,586	11,014	₦17.1bn	₦16.9bn
0.0	14,974	4,042	₦490m	₦490m
2.0	10,722	2,807	₦1.3bn	₦1.26bn
1.0	2,937	728	₦199m	₦199m
5.0	950	303	₦3.93bn	₦3.88bn
6.0	249	150	₦4.88bn	₦4.74bn