Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Akoko North East, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Akoko North East has 38,120 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.04 GWp of roof capacity. 32% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

38,120

Usable roof area

4.63 km²

1.04 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29bn/yr

24 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akoko North East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.55tn

NPV₦237bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy25.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity102 MWp

Capex₦102bn

Year-one energy value₦84.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.02tn

NPV₦671bn

Median IRR85%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Akoko North East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 102 MWp
Capital cost: ₦102bn
Year 1 savings: ₦84.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦671bn
Median IRR: 85%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akoko North East pays back quickly

Of the 37,560 buildings in Akoko North East with a modelled payback, 72.3% pay back inside five years and 32.2% inside three.

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How much of Akoko North East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akoko North East consume 45.6 GWh/yr but want 70.6 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Akoko North East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akoko North East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 37,560 buildings with a modelled result out of 38,120 in Akoko North East. 31,354 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,097 (32%)

Under 5 years27,169 (72%)

Under 7 years31,336 (83%)

Under 10 years33,754 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%33,428 (88%)

Above 15%31,354 (82%)

Above 20%28,286 (74%)

Above 25%24,992 (66%)

CO₂ avoided

54.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

25.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

198k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akoko North East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akoko North East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	19,352	3,932	₦7.6bn	₦7.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	18,179	7,958	₦21.1bn	₦20.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	589	363	₦296m	₦296m	39%	2.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	36,462	11,458	₦23.8bn	₦23.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	836	357	₦2.84bn	₦2.84bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	381	239	₦2.11bn	₦2.1bn	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	291	106	₦37.7m	₦37.7m	33%	3.1 yr
Worship	115	74	₦153m	₦153m	49%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	16	10	₦33.6m	₦33.6m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	9	2	₦9.95m	₦9.95m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	9	6	₦9.69m	₦9.63m	47%	2.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦365k	₦365k	43%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	13,467	4,228	₦9.56bn	₦9.52bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,362	2,318	₦247m	₦245m	13%	7.9 yr
250 1000m2	6,757	2,922	₦17bn	₦16.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	5,418	1,550	₦857m	₦844m	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,070	1,217	₦262m	₦262m	19%	5.6 yr
Over 1000m2	46	18	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	35%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	30,571	9,411	₦18bn	₦18bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	4,120	888	₦2.91bn	₦2.88bn	21%	4.6 yr
Urban	2,091	793	₦3.72bn	₦3.72bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	1,338	1,161	₦4.32bn	₦4.22bn	77%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	11,932	3,249	₦3.31bn	₦3.31bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	6,990	3,583	₦17.9bn	₦17.8bn	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	6,858	700	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	5,210	1,486	₦220m	₦220m	13%	7.1 yr
Residential Small	3,896	2,018	₦1.08bn	₦1.06bn	55%	1.9 yr
Apartment	1,149	274	₦185m	₦185m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	514	161	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	427	148	₦96.3m	₦96.3m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	290	106	₦37.4m	₦37.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Institutional	234	149	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	151	100	₦600m	₦600m	59%	1.9 yr
School	132	82	₦384m	₦384m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	38,120	12,253	₦29bn	₦28.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	37,167	11,813	₦24.9bn	₦24.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	563	195	₦1.98bn	₦1.98bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	390	245	₦2.12bn	₦2.11bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	16,485	3,874	₦6.42bn	₦6.4bn
3.0	11,679	5,302	₦20.5bn	₦20.4bn
0.0	4,783	1,280	₦176m	₦176m
2.0	3,785	1,254	₦730m	₦727m
1.0	1,187	489	₦114m	₦114m
5.0	183	50	₦841m	₦841m
6.0	18	4	₦217m	₦217m