Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Odigbo, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Odigbo has 113,690 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.24 GWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦38.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

113,690

Usable roof area

9.98 km²

2.24 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦38.6bn/yr

28.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Odigbo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦38.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦37.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.1tn

NPV₦292bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy47.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity214 MWp

Capex₦207bn

Year-one energy value₦146bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.88tn

NPV₦1.12tn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Odigbo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 214 MWp
Capital cost: ₦207bn
Year 1 savings: ₦146bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.12tn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Odigbo pays back quickly

Of the 112,387 buildings in Odigbo with a modelled payback, 63.5% pay back inside five years and 22.9% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Odigbo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Odigbo consume 86.7 GWh/yr but want 134 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Odigbo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Odigbo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 112,387 buildings with a modelled result out of 113,690 in Odigbo. 89,313 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years25,750 (23%)

Under 5 years71,403 (64%)

Under 7 years89,151 (79%)

Under 10 years97,108 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%96,089 (85%)

Above 15%89,313 (79%)

Above 20%77,401 (68%)

Above 25%37,976 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

80.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

47.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

351k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Odigbo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Odigbo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	42,902	15,310	₦11.2bn	₦11bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	37,786	4,903	₦9.31bn	₦9.09bn	21%	5.1 yr
D	31,665	10,776	₦16.7bn	₦16.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	1,241	260	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	96	16	₦167m	₦167m	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	105,286	28,109	₦23.2bn	₦23bn	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	4,238	1,633	₦8.54bn	₦8.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	3,148	900	₦317m	₦317m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	503	321	₦5.96bn	₦5.36bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	383	214	₦254m	₦254m	47%	2.1 yr
Industrial	44	33	₦147m	₦127m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	40	26	₦67.2m	₦67.2m	35%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	32	23	₦9.68m	₦9.68m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	15	6	₦16.9m	₦16.9m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦114k	₦114k	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	38,880	12,478	₦15.5bn	₦15.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	26,353	6,215	₦568m	₦566m	13%	7.6 yr
50 100m2	25,172	5,478	₦2.43bn	₦2.42bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	14,293	3,349	₦644m	₦583m	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	8,815	3,658	₦12.9bn	₦12.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	177	87	₦6.48bn	₦5.86bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	52,135	19,810	₦16.5bn	₦16bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	21,781	2,461	₦5.06bn	₦4.88bn	21%	5.4 yr
Urban	18,491	4,376	₦8.85bn	₦8.64bn	25%	4.6 yr
Rural	12,920	2,991	₦6.03bn	₦5.96bn	21%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	8,363	1,627	₦2.11bn	₦2.11bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	25,223	5,755	₦2.46bn	₦2.46bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	21,300	4,360	₦2.43bn	₦2.36bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	19,999	3,103	₦386m	₦386m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Formal	18,584	8,386	₦3.21bn	₦3.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	16,287	4,759	₦14.1bn	₦13.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,176	921	₦326m	₦326m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	2,806	1,255	₦6.21bn	₦6.19bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	2,626	1,095	₦418m	₦418m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,267	651	₦224m	₦224m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	985	127	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	33%	3.1 yr
Institutional	422	258	₦5.66bn	₦5.1bn	41%	2.6 yr
Unknown	190	82	₦402m	₦387m	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	113,530	31,159	₦38.2bn	₦37.3bn
Industrial	157	106	₦331m	₦331m
Farmland	3	0	₦39.9k	₦39.9k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	109,345	29,528	₦25.1bn	₦24.8bn	25%	4.6 yr
SME High	3,822	1,398	₦7.46bn	₦7.44bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	523	339	₦6.03bn	₦5.43bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	33,952	9,964	₦20.9bn	₦20.1bn
4.0	33,144	12,341	₦8.38bn	₦8.29bn
0.0	19,725	3,011	₦375m	₦375m
2.0	19,213	3,916	₦2.25bn	₦2.18bn
1.0	4,844	901	₦301m	₦301m
5.0	2,485	967	₦4.4bn	₦4.4bn
6.0	327	165	₦1.99bn	₦1.95bn