Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Akure South, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Akure South has 132,922 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.6 GWp of roof capacity. 22% run a generator, and together they spend ₦30.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

132,922

Usable roof area

16 km²

3.6 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦30.2bn/yr

20.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akure South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦30.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦30.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.74tn

NPV₦236bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy44.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity168 MWp

Capex₦168bn

Year-one energy value₦113bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.32tn

NPV₦853bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Akure South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 168 MWp
Capital cost: ₦168bn
Year 1 savings: ₦113bn/yr
NPV: ₦853bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akure South pays back quickly

Of the 129,639 buildings in Akure South with a modelled payback, 66.0% pay back inside five years and 19.3% inside three.

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How much of Akure South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akure South consume 72.8 GWh/yr but want 117 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Akure South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akure South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 129,639 buildings with a modelled result out of 132,922 in Akure South. 106,044 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years25,081 (19%)

Under 5 years85,514 (66%)

Under 7 years105,923 (82%)

Under 10 years117,055 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%115,520 (87%)

Above 15%106,044 (80%)

Above 20%91,849 (69%)

Above 25%73,679 (55%)

CO₂ avoided

68.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

44.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

262k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akure South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akure South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	71,375	18,188	₦13.7bn	₦13.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	26,145	2,639	₦5.02bn	₦5.02bn	23%	4.4 yr
D	26,040	6,085	₦6.42bn	₦6.41bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	9,292	2,174	₦5.11bn	₦5.06bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	70	0	₦38.8m	₦38.8m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	130,197	28,102	₦20bn	₦20bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,202	410	₦4.21bn	₦4.21bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	726	304	₦5.3bn	₦5.25bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	313	142	₦167m	₦167m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	266	87	₦45.7m	₦45.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	85	17	₦271m	₦271m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	62	14	₦190m	₦190m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	29	5	₦22.5m	₦22.5m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	23	1	₦25.3m	₦25.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	18	4	₦8.26m	₦8.26m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	1	0	₦270k	₦270k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	49,971	10,677	₦9.92bn	₦9.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	27,910	5,989	₦447m	₦419m	11%	8.1 yr
250 1000m2	21,880	5,290	₦12.9bn	₦12.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	19,014	4,090	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	13,943	2,964	₦350m	₦349m	17%	6.4 yr
Over 1000m2	204	76	₦5.6bn	₦5.55bn	27%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	117,900	24,775	₦22.1bn	₦22bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	7,938	2,329	₦5.05bn	₦5.05bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	6,619	1,856	₦2.94bn	₦2.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	465	126	₦151m	₦151m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	47,224	10,192	₦4.38bn	₦4.38bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	37,053	5,524	₦3.53bn	₦3.53bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	15,096	4,494	₦10bn	₦9.98bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	12,231	3,496	₦433m	₦433m	21%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	10,130	2,666	₦1.03bn	₦996m	23%	4.6 yr
Apartment	5,975	1,201	₦448m	₦448m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	2,488	529	₦188m	₦188m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	371	125	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	314	154	₦4.04bn	₦4.04bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	268	89	₦41.6m	₦41.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	258	89	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	31%	3.6 yr
School	251	95	₦357m	₦357m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	132,845	29,086	₦30.2bn	₦30.1bn
Retail	75	0	₦3.03m	₦3.03m
Farmland	2	0	₦327k	₦327k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	131,612	28,617	₦23.3bn	₦23.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	770	310	₦5.47bn	₦5.42bn	41%	2.6 yr
SME High	540	159	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	67,607	13,527	₦13.4bn	₦13.3bn
3.0	36,180	8,721	₦14.1bn	₦14.1bn
2.0	14,400	2,778	₦965m	₦921m
0.0	10,509	2,931	₦322m	₦322m
1.0	3,939	1,048	₦164m	₦164m
5.0	257	75	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn
6.0	30	6	₦194m	₦194m