Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Ile Oluji/Okeigbo, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Ile Oluji/Okeigbo has 94,704 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.13 GWp of roof capacity. 42% run a generator, and together they spend ₦75.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

94,704

Usable roof area

9.47 km²

2.13 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦75.4bn/yr

64 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ile Oluji/Okeigbo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦75.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦68.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.55tn

NPV₦541bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy47.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity224 MWp

Capex₦227bn

Year-one energy value₦189bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.84tn

NPV₦1.48tn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ile Oluji/Okeigbo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 224 MWp
Capital cost: ₦227bn
Year 1 savings: ₦189bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.48tn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ile Oluji/Okeigbo pays back quickly

Of the 92,917 buildings in Ile Oluji/Okeigbo with a modelled payback, 69.2% pay back inside five years and 37.4% inside three.

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How much of Ile Oluji/Okeigbo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ile Oluji/Okeigbo consume 112 GWh/yr but want 160 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ile Oluji/Okeigbo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ile Oluji/Okeigbo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 92,917 buildings with a modelled result out of 94,704 in Ile Oluji/Okeigbo. 75,077 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years34,785 (37%)

Under 5 years64,294 (69%)

Under 7 years74,992 (81%)

Under 10 years81,814 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%80,725 (85%)

Above 15%75,077 (79%)

Above 20%67,265 (71%)

Above 25%51,803 (55%)

CO₂ avoided

124 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

35.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

47.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

527k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ile Oluji/Okeigbo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ile Oluji/Okeigbo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	34,805	11,591	₦47bn	₦40.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	28,851	14,168	₦9.42bn	₦9.41bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	19,605	9,475	₦12.6bn	₦12.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	11,443	4,735	₦6.4bn	₦6.16bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	91,542	37,799	₦62.6bn	₦56bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,480	984	₦6.99bn	₦6.98bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	711	376	₦111m	₦111m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	680	594	₦5.16bn	₦4.77bn	61%	1.9 yr
Worship	204	155	₦137m	₦137m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	34	22	₦302m	₦289m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	17	10	₦38.7m	₦38.5m	51%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	16	10	₦17.1m	₦16.9m	35%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	16	16	₦12.1m	₦12.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	4	3	₦7.77m	₦7.77m	41%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	31,885	14,398	₦32.6bn	₦30bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	22,130	9,157	₦886m	₦881m	15%	6.1 yr
50 100m2	18,376	6,072	₦5.08bn	₦4.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	11,261	4,243	₦986m	₦949m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	10,964	6,044	₦33.2bn	₦29.4bn	39%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	88	55	₦2.64bn	₦2.39bn	43%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	57,253	27,352	₦31.8bn	₦31.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	13,443	3,446	₦19.6bn	₦13.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	9,469	2,562	₦9.56bn	₦9.04bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban	8,995	3,203	₦7.45bn	₦7.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	5,544	3,406	₦6.92bn	₦6.86bn	45%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	22,607	9,128	₦5.24bn	₦5.24bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	18,703	9,486	₦44.8bn	₦39bn	43%	2.4 yr
Residential Small	18,518	6,103	₦6.57bn	₦5.73bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	14,761	6,342	₦4.87bn	₦4.87bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	13,240	5,220	₦630m	₦630m	17%	6.1 yr
Apartment	2,908	1,146	₦374m	₦374m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	872	495	₦3.51bn	₦3.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	804	374	₦143m	₦143m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	725	390	₦122m	₦122m	33%	3.1 yr
Institutional	403	344	₦2.99bn	₦2.98bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	264	233	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	75%	1.4 yr
School	213	186	₦734m	₦734m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	94,704	39,969	₦75.4bn	₦68.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	93,069	38,820	₦66.1bn	₦59.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	946	551	₦4.1bn	₦4.09bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	689	598	₦5.17bn	₦4.77bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	31,487	15,317	₦51.7bn	₦45.2bn
4.0	30,969	12,590	₦13.1bn	₦13bn
2.0	14,691	5,242	₦6.11bn	₦5.64bn
0.0	13,221	5,218	₦629m	₦629m
1.0	3,738	1,287	₦699m	₦673m
5.0	491	256	₦2.13bn	₦2.12bn
6.0	107	59	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn