Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Ifedore, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Ifedore has 108,008 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.82 GWp of roof capacity. 25% run a generator, and together they spend ₦59.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

108,008

Usable roof area

12.5 km²

2.82 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦59.6bn/yr

48.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ifedore

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦59.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦58.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.21tn

NPV₦477bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy59.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity243 MWp

Capex₦236bn

Year-one energy value₦180bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.48tn

NPV₦1.4tn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ifedore's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 243 MWp
Capital cost: ₦236bn
Year 1 savings: ₦180bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.4tn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ifedore pays back quickly

Of the 103,961 buildings in Ifedore with a modelled payback, 65.4% pay back inside five years and 23.6% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Ifedore's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ifedore consume 107 GWh/yr but want 167 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Ifedore

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ifedore actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 103,961 buildings with a modelled result out of 108,008 in Ifedore. 82,652 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years24,562 (24%)

Under 5 years68,016 (65%)

Under 7 years82,552 (79%)

Under 10 years92,290 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%90,864 (84%)

Above 15%82,652 (77%)

Above 20%72,457 (67%)

Above 25%58,901 (55%)

CO₂ avoided

116 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

27.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

59.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

370k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ifedore.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ifedore

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	40,694	6,559	₦9.62bn	₦9.59bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	33,832	11,631	₦35.7bn	₦34.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	20,874	7,001	₦9.17bn	₦9.08bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	12,500	1,705	₦4.92bn	₦4.92bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	108	7	₦133m	₦133m	33%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	103,220	24,620	₦41.7bn	₦41bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,388	1,188	₦8.42bn	₦8.42bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,185	479	₦140m	₦140m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	754	397	₦8.18bn	₦7.96bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	228	113	₦167m	₦167m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	102	37	₦723m	₦723m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	60	47	₦131m	₦131m	53%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	30	14	₦33.7m	₦33.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	18	2	₦4.59m	₦4.59m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	17	2	₦24.9m	₦24.9m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	6	4	₦8.07m	₦8.07m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	39,860	10,387	₦21.1bn	₦20.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	23,726	5,672	₦662m	₦661m	11%	7.4 yr
50 100m2	16,344	3,838	₦2.17bn	₦2.12bn	21%	5.1 yr
250 1000m2	16,002	4,170	₦27.5bn	₦27bn	25%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	11,854	2,743	₦621m	₦620m	17%	6.4 yr
Over 1000m2	222	93	₦7.53bn	₦7.39bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	68,624	13,474	₦19.1bn	₦19.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	19,248	5,224	₦14.9bn	₦14.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	11,770	4,977	₦15.5bn	₦15bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	6,763	1,720	₦5.13bn	₦4.88bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	1,603	1,508	₦4.93bn	₦4.93bn	75%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	36,312	5,801	₦4.22bn	₦4.22bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	18,172	1,659	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	17,843	7,474	₦31.6bn	₦30.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	13,181	4,896	₦2.74bn	₦2.69bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	11,229	3,713	₦544m	₦544m	19%	5.6 yr
Apartment	4,507	759	₦370m	₦370m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	1,975	317	₦206m	₦206m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,193	478	₦142m	₦142m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	1,130	629	₦4.63bn	₦4.63bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	569	240	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	349	224	₦4.69bn	₦4.6bn	43%	2.6 yr
Unknown	297	96	₦549m	₦549m	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	107,982	26,900	₦59.6bn	₦58.6bn
Industrial	13	3	₦16.1m	₦16.1m
Farmland	9	0	₦12.5m	₦12.5m
Commercial	4	0	₦4.39k	₦4.39k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	105,497	25,610	₦45.2bn	₦44.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,715	859	₦6.11bn	₦6.11bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	796	434	₦8.26bn	₦8.04bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	48,889	7,984	₦12.1bn	₦12.1bn
3.0	33,244	11,348	₦39.7bn	₦38.8bn
2.0	11,210	2,652	₦1.78bn	₦1.69bn
0.0	10,264	3,569	₦470m	₦470m
1.0	3,270	811	₦234m	₦234m
5.0	788	370	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn
6.0	343	169	₦3.24bn	₦3.24bn