Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Ilaje, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Ilaje has 61,815 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.14 GWp of roof capacity. 27% run a generator, and together they spend ₦47.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

61,815

Usable roof area

5.07 km²

1.14 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦47.1bn/yr

40.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ilaje

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦47.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦45.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.34tn

NPV₦360bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy27 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity168 MWp

Capex₦177bn

Year-one energy value₦156bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.41tn

NPV₦1.25tn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ilaje's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 168 MWp
Capital cost: ₦177bn
Year 1 savings: ₦156bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.25tn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ilaje pays back quickly

Of the 61,473 buildings in Ilaje with a modelled payback, 63.8% pay back inside five years and 26.4% inside three.

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How much of Ilaje's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ilaje consume 62.4 GWh/yr but want 89.3 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ilaje

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ilaje actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 61,473 buildings with a modelled result out of 61,815 in Ilaje. 45,580 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,252 (26%)

Under 5 years39,195 (64%)

Under 7 years45,518 (74%)

Under 10 years49,196 (80%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%48,088 (78%)

Above 15%45,580 (74%)

Above 20%41,200 (67%)

Above 25%20,374 (33%)

CO₂ avoided

80.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

25.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

27 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

437k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ilaje.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ilaje

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	41,700	8,438	₦34.2bn	₦32.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	14,939	6,802	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	5,160	1,709	₦1.94bn	₦1.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	12	0	₦30.5k	₦30.5k	1%	14.1 yr
A	4	0	₦243k	₦243k	5%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	61,206	16,410	₦42.4bn	₦41.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	356	318	₦3.33bn	₦2.88bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	223	197	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	13	10	₦65.2m	₦65.2m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	13	11	₦64.5m	₦64.5m	47%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	3	2	₦1.41m	₦1.41m	43%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦957k	₦957k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	18,702	6,052	₦19.9bn	₦19.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	16,020	3,738	₦3.77bn	₦3.76bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	12,301	2,765	₦349m	₦349m	7%	14.6 yr
30 50m2	10,517	2,142	₦613m	₦609m	11%	9.1 yr
250 1000m2	4,222	2,217	₦19.2bn	₦18.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Over 1000m2	53	35	₦3.18bn	₦2.53bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	21,686	3,756	₦16bn	₦15.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	20,130	4,709	₦15.1bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	8,810	4,870	₦5.29bn	₦5.29bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unclassified	7,218	2,155	₦6.8bn	₦6.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	3,971	1,459	₦3.82bn	₦3.65bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	19,254	5,016	₦4.86bn	₦4.85bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	18,385	5,910	₦35.9bn	₦34.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	18,268	3,108	₦406m	₦406m	7%	13.6 yr
Residential Formal	4,359	1,871	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	938	505	₦130m	₦130m	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	221	197	₦2.4bn	₦2.04bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	133	124	₦763m	₦763m	79%	1.4 yr
School	87	79	₦228m	₦228m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	69	58	₦858m	₦758m	49%	2.1 yr
Clinic	50	41	₦236m	₦232m	47%	2.1 yr
Unknown	11	9	₦40.4m	₦40.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial Site	9	7	₦24.2m	₦24.2m	61%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	61,815	16,949	₦47.1bn	₦45.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	61,443	16,619	₦43.7bn	₦42.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	369	328	₦3.4bn	₦2.94bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	3	2	₦1.41m	₦1.41m	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	21,261	6,111	₦14.7bn	₦14.5bn
0.0	18,271	3,110	₦407m	₦407m
1.0	9,967	1,738	₦1.76bn	₦1.75bn
3.0	8,698	4,428	₦28.5bn	₦27bn
4.0	3,617	1,561	₦1.62bn	₦1.62bn
5.0	1	1	₦31.7m	₦31.7m