Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Idanre, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Idanre has 71,134 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.24 GWp of roof capacity. 31% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

71,134

Usable roof area

5.51 km²

1.24 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.3bn/yr

26.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Idanre

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦29.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.55tn

NPV₦235bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy23 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity109 MWp

Capex₦112bn

Year-one energy value₦94.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.5tn

NPV₦753bn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Idanre's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 109 MWp
Capital cost: ₦112bn
Year 1 savings: ₦94.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦753bn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Idanre pays back quickly

Of the 69,483 buildings in Idanre with a modelled payback, 56.2% pay back inside five years and 30.4% inside three.

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How much of Idanre's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Idanre consume 43.5 GWh/yr but want 66.5 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Idanre

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Idanre actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 69,483 buildings with a modelled result out of 71,134 in Idanre. 47,448 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years21,101 (30%)

Under 5 years39,057 (56%)

Under 7 years47,387 (68%)

Under 10 years51,978 (75%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%51,059 (72%)

Above 15%47,448 (67%)

Above 20%41,562 (58%)

Above 25%31,206 (44%)

CO₂ avoided

53.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

244k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Idanre.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Idanre

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	53,347	14,854	₦21.3bn	₦21.2bn	21%	4.9 yr
D	15,975	7,340	₦7.68bn	₦7.68bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	1,812	196	₦340m	₦340m	21%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	69,091	20,980	₦22.5bn	₦22.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	777	567	₦3.11bn	₦3.11bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	528	331	₦86.1m	₦86.1m	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	427	342	₦3.36bn	₦3.33bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	196	130	₦90.5m	₦90.5m	57%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	56	15	₦17.3m	₦17.3m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	37	17	₦83.7m	₦83.7m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	15	8	₦19.6m	₦19.6m	55%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	7	0	₦316k	₦316k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	22,382	6,043	₦563m	₦563m	7%	14.6 yr
100 250m2	19,540	7,873	₦13bn	₦13bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	14,346	3,257	₦1.7bn	₦1.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	9,803	2,379	₦442m	₦441m	11%	8.6 yr
250 1000m2	5,023	2,811	₦12bn	₦11.9bn	45%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	40	27	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	28,391	3,129	₦7.52bn	₦7.52bn	11%	8.1 yr
Urban Centre	17,474	10,340	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn	45%	2.4 yr
Dense Urban	9,638	3,857	₦3.62bn	₦3.62bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	7,846	3,330	₦6.15bn	₦6.09bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	7,785	1,734	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	17%	5.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	21,253	4,112	₦488m	₦488m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	16,478	3,727	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	15,225	5,502	₦15.7bn	₦15.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	7,854	4,500	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn	33%	3.1 yr
Residential Informal	7,222	2,518	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	792	488	₦224m	₦224m	43%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	579	346	₦103m	₦103m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial	415	359	₦2.18bn	₦2.18bn	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	279	221	₦2.1bn	₦2.1bn	53%	1.9 yr
Duplex	264	133	₦64.5m	₦64.5m	33%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	126	107	₦733m	₦733m	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	118	11	₦74.9m	₦74.9m	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	71,134	22,390	₦29.3bn	₦29.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	70,152	21,667	₦23.6bn	₦23.6bn	23%	4.4 yr
SME High	555	378	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn	49%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	427	345	₦3.36bn	₦3.33bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	22,856	8,849	₦20.5bn	₦20.4bn
0.0	21,118	4,019	₦472m	₦472m
2.0	11,967	2,546	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn
4.0	10,989	5,982	₦6.02bn	₦6.02bn
1.0	4,167	989	₦265m	₦265m
5.0	31	5	₦220m	₦220m
6.0	6	0	₦51.3m	₦51.3m