Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Ose, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Ose has 38,123 buildings with a viable rooftop and 786 MWp of roof capacity. 39% run a generator, and together they spend ₦61.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

38,123

Usable roof area

3.5 km²

786 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦61.6bn/yr

66.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ose

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦61.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦59.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.03tn

NPV₦477bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy28.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity150 MWp

Capex₦144bn

Year-one energy value₦126bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.95tn

NPV₦1tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ose's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 150 MWp
Capital cost: ₦144bn
Year 1 savings: ₦126bn/yr
NPV: ₦1tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ose pays back quickly

Of the 37,710 buildings in Ose with a modelled payback, 69.1% pay back inside five years and 39.6% inside three.

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How much of Ose's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ose consume 88.3 GWh/yr but want 116 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ose

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ose actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 37,710 buildings with a modelled result out of 38,123 in Ose. 29,357 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,938 (40%)

Under 5 years26,072 (69%)

Under 7 years29,346 (78%)

Under 10 years30,765 (82%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%30,369 (80%)

Above 15%29,357 (77%)

Above 20%27,358 (72%)

Above 25%23,086 (61%)

CO₂ avoided

94.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

29.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

28.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

254k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ose.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ose

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	37,354	14,807	₦61bn	₦58.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	769	181	₦602m	₦602m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	35,051	12,091	₦33.9bn	₦32.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,899	1,818	₦23bn	₦22.8bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	633	606	₦358m	₦358m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	312	253	₦557m	₦557m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	213	206	₦3.71bn	₦3.4bn	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial	15	14	₦92.3m	₦91.9m	73%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,110	6,154	₦23bn	₦22.8bn	57%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	10,231	2,238	₦2.97bn	₦2.28bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	7,357	2,592	₦555m	₦491m	7%	14.6 yr
30 50m2	5,788	1,413	₦966m	₦509m	9%	9.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,606	2,567	₦31.8bn	₦31bn	67%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	31	24	₦2.37bn	₦2.26bn	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	16,175	1,835	₦9.46bn	₦7.8bn	23%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	11,945	8,371	₦33bn	₦32.8bn	59%	1.9 yr
Rural	5,160	2,193	₦5.78bn	₦5.73bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	4,843	2,589	₦13.4bn	₦13bn	61%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	12,685	3,146	₦2.9bn	₦2.35bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	10,034	5,298	₦27.9bn	₦27.4bn	61%	1.6 yr
Shed	9,011	2,059	₦337m	₦337m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Formal	2,060	1,218	₦2.45bn	₦1.77bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,013	972	₦15.3bn	₦15.2bn	65%	1.6 yr
Residential Informal	777	79	₦70.6m	₦70.6m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial	729	698	₦6.65bn	₦6.53bn	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	633	606	₦358m	₦358m	57%	1.9 yr
Apartment	332	194	₦132m	₦132m	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	248	219	₦2.48bn	₦2.44bn	57%	1.9 yr
Duplex	151	96	₦64.7m	₦64.7m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	110	89	₦103m	₦103m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	38,120	14,985	₦61.6bn	₦59.3bn
Farmland	3	3	₦9.21m	₦9.21m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	36,153	13,098	₦35.9bn	₦34.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,742	1,670	₦22bn	₦21.8bn	63%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	228	220	₦3.8bn	₦3.49bn	77%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	14,268	7,068	₦33.9bn	₦32.3bn
0.0	8,856	1,950	₦297m	₦297m
2.0	6,800	1,583	₦1.51bn	₦1.46bn
4.0	4,525	2,844	₦12.9bn	₦12.4bn
1.0	2,742	664	₦387m	₦385m
5.0	712	673	₦9.01bn	₦8.84bn
6.0	220	206	₦3.65bn	₦3.62bn