Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Akoko South West, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Akoko South West has 47,076 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.23 GWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦36.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

47,076

Usable roof area

5.48 km²

1.23 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦36.3bn/yr

32.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akoko South West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦36.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦35.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.86tn

NPV₦289bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy28.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity131 MWp

Capex₦134bn

Year-one energy value₦117bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.55tn

NPV₦933bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Akoko South West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 131 MWp
Capital cost: ₦134bn
Year 1 savings: ₦117bn/yr
NPV: ₦933bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akoko South West pays back quickly

Of the 46,174 buildings in Akoko South West with a modelled payback, 71.0% pay back inside five years and 28.5% inside three.

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How much of Akoko South West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akoko South West consume 52.9 GWh/yr but want 81.8 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Akoko South West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akoko South West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,174 buildings with a modelled result out of 47,076 in Akoko South West. 37,278 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,168 (29%)

Under 5 years32,765 (71%)

Under 7 years37,247 (81%)

Under 10 years40,362 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%39,845 (85%)

Above 15%37,278 (79%)

Above 20%34,127 (72%)

Above 25%29,736 (63%)

CO₂ avoided

65.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

28.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

286k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akoko South West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akoko South West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	34,536	11,473	₦31.8bn	₦30.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	12,540	1,853	₦4.45bn	₦4.45bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	45,616	12,119	₦29bn	₦28.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	658	560	₦3.08bn	₦3.08bn	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	364	278	₦3.7bn	₦3.62bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	220	220	₦63.8m	₦63.8m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	192	133	₦354m	₦354m	55%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	12	6	₦59.7m	₦59.7m	35%	2.9 yr
Industrial	10	8	₦23m	₦23m	57%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦2.21m	₦2.21m	39%	2.6 yr
Productive Use	2	0	₦221k	₦221k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	17,442	5,153	₦13.2bn	₦12.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	10,655	2,591	₦309m	₦309m	9%	9.4 yr
50 100m2	7,138	1,739	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	7,128	2,628	₦19.2bn	₦18.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	4,649	1,194	₦292m	₦292m	17%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	64	21	₦2.25bn	₦2.25bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	17,119	6,618	₦14.5bn	₦14.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	16,622	2,978	₦6.1bn	₦6.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	6,166	1,315	₦5.87bn	₦5.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	5,846	1,827	₦8.23bn	₦7.57bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	1,323	588	₦1.55bn	₦1.54bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	15,213	4,196	₦5.41bn	₦5.41bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	11,194	3,954	₦21.4bn	₦20.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	7,164	1,853	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	6,653	1,501	₦210m	₦210m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,720	3	₦166m	₦166m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	1,963	442	₦433m	₦433m	25%	4.1 yr
Duplex	709	170	₦159m	₦159m	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	263	203	₦2.8bn	₦2.8bn	51%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	221	220	₦63.9m	₦63.9m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	192	185	₦439m	₦439m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial	170	170	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	69%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	118	93	₦488m	₦488m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	47,076	13,326	₦36.3bn	₦35.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	46,333	12,681	₦30.6bn	₦29.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	374	286	₦3.73bn	₦3.64bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	369	359	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	18,386	4,572	₦8.32bn	₦8.32bn
3.0	16,763	5,733	₦25.9bn	₦25bn
0.0	6,381	1,430	₦189m	₦189m
2.0	3,975	1,028	₦847m	₦847m
1.0	1,358	359	₦175m	₦175m
5.0	171	162	₦608m	₦608m
6.0	42	42	₦241m	₦241m