Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Akoko South East, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Akoko South East has 13,136 buildings with a viable rooftop and 359 MWp of roof capacity. 61% run a generator, and together they spend ₦27.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

13,136

Usable roof area

1.6 km²

359 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦27.2bn/yr

25.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.4 yr

Median IRR 73% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akoko South East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦27.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦26.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.36tn

NPV₦218bn

Median IRR73%

Median payback1.4 yr

Unlocked energy13 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity57.2 MWp

Capex₦58.5bn

Year-one energy value₦56.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.66tn

NPV₦453bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Akoko South East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 57.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦58.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦56.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦453bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akoko South East pays back quickly

Of the 13,112 buildings in Akoko South East with a modelled payback, 84.1% pay back inside five years and 60.9% inside three.

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How much of Akoko South East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akoko South East consume 31.9 GWh/yr but want 44.9 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Akoko South East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akoko South East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 13,112 buildings with a modelled result out of 13,136 in Akoko South East. 11,612 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,988 (61%)

Under 5 years11,025 (84%)

Under 7 years11,608 (89%)

Under 10 years12,122 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%11,980 (91%)

Above 15%11,612 (88%)

Above 20%11,230 (85%)

Above 25%10,621 (81%)

CO₂ avoided

44.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

106k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akoko South East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akoko South East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	13,135	8,001	₦27.2bn	₦26.5bn	73%	1.4 yr
D	1	0	₦6.79k	₦6.79k	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	12,469	7,397	₦22.5bn	₦21.9bn	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	219	204	₦1.42bn	₦1.42bn	61%	1.9 yr
Worship	192	181	₦767m	₦767m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	166	164	₦2.45bn	₦2.41bn	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	83	48	₦15m	₦15m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	7	7	₦40.3m	₦40.3m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	5,251	3,284	₦9.94bn	₦9.83bn	75%	1.4 yr
Under 30m2	2,336	1,212	₦180m	₦180m	53%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	2,174	1,302	₦901m	₦901m	73%	1.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,081	1,439	₦14.9bn	₦14.3bn	77%	1.4 yr
30 50m2	1,283	754	₦212m	₦212m	73%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	11	10	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	5,237	2,807	₦6.7bn	₦6.62bn	59%	1.9 yr
Urban	4,236	2,886	₦9.72bn	₦9.64bn	75%	1.4 yr
Rural	1,872	1,496	₦4.79bn	₦4.79bn	75%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	1,791	812	₦5.99bn	₦5.46bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	5,529	3,811	₦20.8bn	₦20.1bn	77%	1.4 yr
Residential Small	3,033	2,063	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	75%	1.4 yr
Shed	2,508	1,348	₦188m	₦188m	69%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,131	152	₦201m	₦201m	25%	4.1 yr
Apartment	204	19	₦21.9m	₦21.9m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	161	156	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	83	48	₦15m	₦15m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	70	66	₦107m	₦107m	67%	1.6 yr
Duplex	64	4	₦6.77m	₦6.77m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	63	52	₦380m	₦380m	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	59	59	₦671m	₦671m	87%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	57	54	₦55m	₦55m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	13,136	8,001	₦27.2bn	₦26.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	12,870	7,748	₦24.1bn	₦23.4bn	73%	1.4 yr
Enterprise	173	171	₦2.49bn	₦2.45bn	81%	1.4 yr
SME High	93	82	₦605m	₦605m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	7,573	5,245	₦25bn	₦24.3bn
0.0	2,466	1,338	₦182m	₦182m
4.0	1,400	241	₦838m	₦838m
2.0	1,304	924	₦958m	₦958m
1.0	369	229	₦98m	₦98m
5.0	23	23	₦101m	₦101m
6.0	1	1	₦18.9m	₦18.9m