Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Irele, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Irele has 36,893 buildings with a viable rooftop and 679 MWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

36,893

Usable roof area

3.03 km²

679 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17bn/yr

14.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Irele

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦16.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦887bn

NPV₦134bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy14.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity76 MWp

Capex₦80.3bn

Year-one energy value₦69.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.27tn

NPV₦548bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Irele's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 76 MWp
Capital cost: ₦80.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦69.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦548bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Irele pays back quickly

Of the 36,540 buildings in Irele with a modelled payback, 61.3% pay back inside five years and 22.9% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Irele's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Irele consume 24.9 GWh/yr but want 39.1 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Irele

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Irele actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 36,540 buildings with a modelled result out of 36,893 in Irele. 27,243 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,382 (23%)

Under 5 years22,417 (61%)

Under 7 years27,206 (74%)

Under 10 years29,437 (81%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%29,059 (79%)

Above 15%27,243 (74%)

Above 20%24,217 (66%)

Above 25%9,896 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

31.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.98 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

247k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Irele.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Irele

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	28,178	6,626	₦14.9bn	₦14.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	8,715	1,815	₦2.1bn	₦2.1bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	36,234	8,007	₦15.2bn	₦15bn	25%	4.6 yr
Anchor	276	199	₦1.19bn	₦1.13bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	176	123	₦481m	₦481m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	139	73	₦65.7m	₦65.7m	51%	2.1 yr
Productive Use	26	17	₦7.15m	₦7.15m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	24	15	₦19.5m	₦19.5m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	11	3	₦855k	₦855k	31%	3.6 yr
Industrial	6	3	₦11.7m	₦11.7m	37%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦1.51m	₦1.51m	59%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	12,189	3,690	₦9.3bn	₦9.25bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	8,497	1,241	₦1.13bn	₦1.05bn	25%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	8,071	1,609	₦181m	₦181m	7%	13.9 yr
30 50m2	6,048	1,056	₦267m	₦267m	15%	6.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,071	835	₦5.54bn	₦5.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	17	10	₦541m	₦481m	57%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	16,175	4,368	₦7.52bn	₦7.52bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	8,922	738	₦2.05bn	₦1.97bn	11%	8.1 yr
Rural	8,287	1,642	₦3.17bn	₦3.03bn	23%	4.9 yr
Dense Urban	2,159	1,192	₦2.32bn	₦2.32bn	67%	1.6 yr
Urban	1,350	501	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	10,402	2,261	₦2.67bn	₦2.67bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	8,759	1,462	₦1.28bn	₦1.25bn	25%	4.6 yr
Shed	8,463	1,557	₦227m	₦227m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential	7,102	2,396	₦10.7bn	₦10.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	1,468	319	₦284m	₦284m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	181	123	₦699m	₦639m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	107	79	₦409m	₦409m	71%	1.4 yr
School	79	56	₦173m	₦173m	69%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	63	32	₦14.9m	₦14.9m	45%	2.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	43	31	₦249m	₦245m	47%	2.1 yr
Clinic	40	27	₦122m	₦122m	47%	2.4 yr
Duplex	39	12	₦8.93m	₦8.93m	25%	4.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	36,890	8,441	₦17bn	₦16.7bn
Farmland	3	0	₦135k	₦135k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	36,596	8,229	₦15.7bn	₦15.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	277	199	₦1.2bn	₦1.13bn	55%	1.9 yr
SME High	20	13	₦14.9m	₦14.9m	49%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	10,863	2,438	₦3.44bn	₦3.44bn
3.0	10,191	3,277	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn
0.0	8,036	1,290	₦159m	₦159m
2.0	5,271	948	₦1.31bn	₦1.25bn
1.0	2,532	488	₦219m	₦219m