Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Akoko North West, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Akoko North West has 31,116 buildings with a viable rooftop and 809 MWp of roof capacity. 34% run a generator, and together they spend ₦35.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

31,116

Usable roof area

3.59 km²

809 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦35.6bn/yr

31.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akoko North West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦35.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦35.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.85tn

NPV₦292bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy27.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity116 MWp

Capex₦118bn

Year-one energy value₦108bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.12tn

NPV₦867bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Akoko North West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 116 MWp
Capital cost: ₦118bn
Year 1 savings: ₦108bn/yr
NPV: ₦867bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akoko North West pays back quickly

Of the 30,838 buildings in Akoko North West with a modelled payback, 74.7% pay back inside five years and 34.8% inside three.

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How much of Akoko North West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akoko North West consume 50.2 GWh/yr but want 77.5 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Akoko North West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akoko North West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 30,838 buildings with a modelled result out of 31,116 in Akoko North West. 25,926 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,729 (35%)

Under 5 years23,038 (75%)

Under 7 years25,919 (84%)

Under 10 years27,758 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%27,399 (88%)

Above 15%25,926 (83%)

Above 20%23,916 (77%)

Above 25%21,456 (69%)

CO₂ avoided

64.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

19.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

27.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

255k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akoko North West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akoko North West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	19,926	7,473	₦27.4bn	₦27.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	11,190	3,236	₦8.18bn	₦8.11bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	29,696	9,775	₦29.4bn	₦29.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	745	438	₦3.13bn	₦3.13bn	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	328	295	₦2.66bn	₦2.65bn	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	224	95	₦37m	₦37m	33%	3.1 yr
Worship	105	91	₦255m	₦255m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	15	12	₦69.2m	₦68.9m	73%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦1.13m	₦1.13m	53%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	1	1	₦509k	₦509k	57%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,749	4,171	₦12.8bn	₦12.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	7,063	2,094	₦287m	₦278m	13%	7.6 yr
250 1000m2	4,758	1,938	₦19.9bn	₦19.7bn	27%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	4,459	1,464	₦1.09bn	₦1.08bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	3,059	1,024	₦301m	₦299m	21%	5.1 yr
Over 1000m2	28	18	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	43%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	13,061	3,824	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	6,819	1,179	₦2.19bn	₦2.19bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	4,209	1,881	₦7.97bn	₦7.89bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	3,610	2,802	₦8.36bn	₦8.36bn	77%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	3,417	1,023	₦5.29bn	₦5.07bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	10,367	4,592	₦26.7bn	₦26.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	7,085	2,965	₦1.78bn	₦1.77bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	5,866	314	₦605m	₦600m	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	5,640	1,867	₦255m	₦255m	17%	6.1 yr
Apartment	427	32	₦32.4m	₦32.4m	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	294	5	₦15.1m	₦15.1m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	258	18	₦307m	₦307m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	248	210	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	51%	2.1 yr
Institutional	225	202	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	224	95	₦37m	₦37m	33%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	143	124	₦894m	₦894m	83%	1.1 yr
School	109	100	₦304m	₦304m	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	31,116	10,709	₦35.6bn	₦35.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	30,264	10,172	₦31.1bn	₦30.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	509	230	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	343	307	₦2.73bn	₦2.72bn	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	14,706	6,437	₦31bn	₦30.8bn
4.0	6,034	474	₦1.66bn	₦1.65bn
0.0	5,118	1,749	₦219m	₦219m
2.0	3,550	1,462	₦1.37bn	₦1.33bn
1.0	1,355	459	₦157m	₦157m
5.0	272	68	₦417m	₦417m
6.0	81	60	₦702m	₦702m