Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Ondo East, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Ondo East has 13,002 buildings with a viable rooftop and 270 MWp of roof capacity. 37% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

13,002

Usable roof area

1.2 km²

270 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.5bn/yr

13 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ondo East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦770bn

NPV₦117bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy11.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity55.7 MWp

Capex₦56.7bn

Year-one energy value₦48.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.3tn

NPV₦385bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ondo East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 55.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦56.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦48.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦385bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ondo East pays back quickly

Of the 12,901 buildings in Ondo East with a modelled payback, 76.2% pay back inside five years and 36.8% inside three.

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How much of Ondo East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ondo East consume 21.7 GWh/yr but want 33.1 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ondo East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ondo East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 12,901 buildings with a modelled result out of 13,002 in Ondo East. 10,613 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,744 (37%)

Under 5 years9,828 (76%)

Under 7 years10,607 (82%)

Under 10 years10,966 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%10,860 (84%)

Above 15%10,613 (82%)

Above 20%10,103 (78%)

Above 25%7,542 (58%)

CO₂ avoided

26.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.54 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

138k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ondo East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ondo East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	8,506	2,698	₦9.76bn	₦9.75bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	3,016	1,560	₦2.81bn	₦2.81bn	39%	2.9 yr
D	1,460	502	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	20	0	₦7.82m	₦7.82m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	12,634	4,442	₦11.2bn	₦11.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	138	118	₦892m	₦892m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	105	84	₦2.33bn	₦2.32bn	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	87	79	₦51.2m	₦51.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	36	36	₦16.7m	₦16.7m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	2	1	₦680k	₦680k	33%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	3,964	1,667	₦4.97bn	₦4.96bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	3,234	1,177	₦145m	₦145m	15%	6.9 yr
50 100m2	3,115	817	₦857m	₦856m	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	1,536	510	₦149m	₦149m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,134	578	₦6.14bn	₦6.14bn	41%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	19	11	₦2.22bn	₦2.22bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	3,934	681	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	3,701	1,362	₦6.77bn	₦6.76bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	3,264	1,527	₦3.05bn	₦3.05bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	2,103	1,190	₦2.74bn	₦2.74bn	63%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	4,322	1,779	₦9.64bn	₦9.64bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	4,049	1,329	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	3,516	1,115	₦113m	₦113m	9%	12.9 yr
Residential Informal	741	217	₦256m	₦256m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	91	74	₦2.16bn	₦2.16bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	41	41	₦227m	₦227m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	35	30	₦152m	₦152m	83%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	35	35	₦9.76m	₦9.76m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	32	29	₦11.3m	₦11.3m	61%	1.6 yr
School	29	24	₦58.1m	₦58.1m	81%	1.4 yr
Unknown	26	18	₦237m	₦237m	43%	2.1 yr
Place Of Worship	26	24	₦6.72m	₦6.72m	59%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	13,002	4,760	₦14.5bn	₦14.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	12,836	4,616	₦11.7bn	₦11.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	107	85	₦2.33bn	₦2.32bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	59	59	₦428m	₦428m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	6,149	2,568	₦12.3bn	₦12.3bn
0.0	3,519	1,119	₦113m	₦113m
2.0	2,289	673	₦812m	₦811m
1.0	654	231	₦114m	₦114m
4.0	386	164	₦937m	₦937m
5.0	5	5	₦171m	₦171m