Ondo State

Rooftop solar in Ese Odo, Ondo: what the roofs are worth

Ese Odo has 21,881 buildings with a viable rooftop and 381 MWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦35.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

21,881

Usable roof area

1.7 km²

381 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦35.7bn/yr

30.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ese Odo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦35.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦34.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.78tn

NPV₦278bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy18.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity100 MWp

Capex₦106bn

Year-one energy value₦93.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.41tn

NPV₦744bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ese Odo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 100 MWp
Capital cost: ₦106bn
Year 1 savings: ₦93.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦744bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ese Odo pays back quickly

Of the 21,771 buildings in Ese Odo with a modelled payback, 69.2% pay back inside five years and 32.3% inside three.

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How much of Ese Odo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ese Odo consume 44.3 GWh/yr but want 63 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ese Odo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ese Odo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 21,771 buildings with a modelled result out of 21,881 in Ese Odo. 16,669 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,039 (32%)

Under 5 years15,061 (69%)

Under 7 years16,653 (76%)

Under 10 years17,451 (80%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%17,227 (79%)

Above 15%16,669 (76%)

Above 20%15,624 (71%)

Above 25%7,939 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

60.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

18.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

272k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ese Odo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ese Odo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	16,206	5,203	₦27.4bn	₦26.7bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	4,053	1,033	₦3.67bn	₦3.65bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	1,622	965	₦4.57bn	₦4.55bn	37%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	21,610	6,958	₦33.4bn	₦32.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Anchor	147	134	₦1.85bn	₦1.51bn	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	87	79	₦367m	₦367m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	34	27	₦84.7m	₦84.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦5.55m	₦5.15m	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	6,507	2,706	₦18.3bn	₦17.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	5,111	1,484	₦2.9bn	₦2.89bn	25%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	4,838	1,295	₦264m	₦264m	9%	9.6 yr
30 50m2	4,241	1,074	₦506m	₦506m	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,166	630	₦12.6bn	₦12.5bn	57%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	18	12	₦1.07bn	₦799m	69%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	9,027	3,126	₦13.1bn	₦13bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	7,249	1,852	₦9.21bn	₦8.89bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	3,041	1,502	₦10.5bn	₦10.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,564	721	₦2.9bn	₦2.69bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	6,263	1,651	₦222m	₦222m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Small	6,241	2,316	₦4.72bn	₦4.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	5,147	2,509	₦27.4bn	₦27bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	3,745	460	₦957m	₦957m	25%	4.6 yr
Apartment	153	20	₦35.4m	₦35.4m	25%	4.6 yr
Institutional	98	88	₦659m	₦561m	55%	1.9 yr
Duplex	61	2	₦10.6m	₦10.6m	25%	4.4 yr
Educational Facility	50	45	₦357m	₦357m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	35	33	₦918m	₦696m	51%	2.1 yr
School	35	30	₦93.6m	₦93.6m	77%	1.4 yr
Clinic	25	24	₦252m	₦233m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	14	12	₦8.86m	₦8.86m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	21,881	7,201	₦35.7bn	₦34.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	21,731	7,064	₦33.8bn	₦33.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	150	137	₦1.85bn	₦1.51bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	6,969	3,389	₦29.7bn	₦29.1bn
0.0	6,246	1,638	₦214m	₦214m
2.0	3,870	1,451	₦4.12bn	₦4.03bn
4.0	3,285	395	₦1.12bn	₦1.11bn
1.0	1,511	328	₦484m	₦483m