Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Lagos State: buildings, spend and payback

2,760,409 buildings in Lagos State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦3.5tn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 41% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

2,760,409

Usable roof area

297 km²

66.7 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦3.5tn/yr

2.17 TWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Lagos

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦3.5tn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦3.33tn

Lifetime cash saved₦184tn

NPV₦24.4tn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy3.67 TWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity13.5 GWp

Capex₦13tn

Year-one energy value₦6.6tn

Lifetime energy value₦305tn

NPV₦45.8tn

Median IRR57%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Lagos State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 13.5 GWp
Capital cost: ₦13tn
Year 1 savings: ₦6.6tn/yr
NPV: ₦45.8tn
Median IRR: 57%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Lagos State pays back quickly

Of the 2,753,907 buildings in Lagos State with a modelled payback, 86.0% pay back inside five years and 31.1% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

86.0%

Payback under 3 years

31.1%

IRR above 20%

88.9%

Under 3 years · 31%3 – 5 years · 55%5 – 7 years · 9%7 – 10 years · 3%Over 10 years · 2%

Coverage: 100% of buildings in Lagos State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Lagos State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Lagos State consume 9.2 TWh/yr but want 12.9 TWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 71%Suppressed · 29%

Energy wanted

12.9 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

9.2 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

3.67 TWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Lagos State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 2,753,907 buildings with a modelled result out of 2,760,409 in Lagos State. 2,613,321 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years856,201 (31%)

Under 5 years2,368,363 (86%)

Under 7 years2,611,762 (95%)

Under 10 years2,700,833 (98%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%2,691,460 (98%)

Above 15%2,613,320 (95%)

Above 20%2,455,311 (89%)

Above 25%1,792,361 (65%)

Electricity billing bands in Lagos State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Lagos State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	693,311	361,776	₦864bn	₦786bn	37%	2.9 yr
C	582,359	227,539	₦487bn	₦475bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	577,711	255,067	₦411bn	₦401bn	25%	4.1 yr
A	504,787	139,050	₦1.17tn	₦1.11tn	27%	3.9 yr
B	402,241	160,903	₦571bn	₦557bn	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,538,300	1,047,359	₦2.15tn	₦2.03tn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	102,412	44,668	₦609bn	₦589bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	50,287	21,188	₦28.1bn	₦28.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	33,375	15,738	₦573bn	₦551bn	43%	2.6 yr
Worship	15,406	6,966	₦14bn	₦13.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	7,854	2,902	₦60.1bn	₦54.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	5,759	2,829	₦47.7bn	₦46.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	3,134	1,190	₦13.6bn	₦13.2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	1,770	643	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	1,259	542	₦2.16bn	₦2.15bn	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	853	310	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	817,573	357,476	₦941bn	₦889bn	29%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	703,113	276,610	₦50.1bn	₦45.4bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	497,177	204,252	₦166bn	₦152bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	365,957	145,927	₦52.3bn	₦49.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	365,260	155,167	₦1.5tn	₦1.44tn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	11,329	4,903	₦791bn	₦751bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	2,447,158	986,996	₦2.78tn	₦2.7tn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	117,758	52,319	₦386bn	₦322bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	117,623	63,042	₦229bn	₦205bn	41%	2.6 yr
Dense Urban	70,864	36,129	₦68.5bn	₦67.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Rural	7,006	5,849	₦35.4bn	₦34.6bn	69%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	1,414,514	505,073	₦1.14tn	₦1.11tn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	490,027	214,509	₦195bn	₦192bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	227,287	101,521	₦13.6bn	₦13.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	170,259	97,219	₦111bn	₦98bn	39%	2.9 yr
Residential	148,639	88,368	₦661bn	₦582bn	43%	2.6 yr
Apartment	61,671	28,575	₦24.9bn	₦24.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	47,127	19,589	₦11.8bn	₦11.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	32,663	13,054	₦188bn	₦185bn	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	25,418	11,814	₦9.76bn	₦9.75bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	21,708	11,831	₦200bn	₦193bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	19,674	7,260	₦101bn	₦99.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	19,021	9,336	₦503bn	₦488bn	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	2,664,009	1,108,434	₦3.03tn	₦2.87tn
Industrial	51,787	18,734	₦405bn	₦390bn
Retail	21,349	6,601	₦36.9bn	₦35.7bn
Farmland	17,584	9,396	₦19.6bn	₦18.4bn
Commercial	5,674	1,169	₦15.7bn	₦14.3bn
Farmyard	5	0	₦90.1k	₦90.1k
Orchard	1	1	₦1.05m	₦1.05m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	2,655,040	1,095,949	₦2.44tn	₦2.3tn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	67,979	30,519	₦448bn	₦435bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	37,390	17,867	₦614bn	₦591bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	1,228,347	492,877	₦1.96tn	₦1.91tn
3.0	669,595	303,342	₦972bn	₦887bn
2.0	494,563	191,982	₦115bn	₦101bn
0.0	195,390	90,791	₦12.3bn	₦12.3bn
1.0	119,411	44,867	₦15.3bn	₦9.89bn
5.0	35,772	14,583	₦153bn	₦151bn
6.0	17,331	5,893	₦272bn	₦260bn