Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Ajeromi/Ifelodun, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Ajeromi/Ifelodun has 35,873 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.28 GWp of roof capacity. 37% run a generator, and together they spend ₦103bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

35,873

Usable roof area

5.67 km²

1.28 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦103bn/yr

49.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ajeromi/Ifelodun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦103bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦97.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦5.58tn

NPV₦717bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy137 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity440 MWp

Capex₦434bn

Year-one energy value₦215bn

Lifetime energy value₦9.92tn

NPV₦1.48tn

Median IRR57%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Ajeromi/Ifelodun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 440 MWp
Capital cost: ₦434bn
Year 1 savings: ₦215bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.48tn
Median IRR: 57%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ajeromi/Ifelodun pays back quickly

Of the 35,873 buildings in Ajeromi/Ifelodun with a modelled payback, 96.4% pay back inside five years and 26.0% inside three.

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How much of Ajeromi/Ifelodun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ajeromi/Ifelodun consume 299 GWh/yr but want 437 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ajeromi/Ifelodun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ajeromi/Ifelodun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 35,873 buildings with a modelled result out of 35,873 in Ajeromi/Ifelodun. 35,687 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,337 (26%)

Under 5 years34,570 (96%)

Under 7 years35,684 (99%)

Under 10 years35,856 (100%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,843 (100%)

Above 15%35,687 (99%)

Above 20%35,064 (98%)

Above 25%31,770 (89%)

CO₂ avoided

229 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

29.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

137 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

577k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ajeromi/Ifelodun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ajeromi/Ifelodun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	19,969	5,558	₦53.2bn	₦49.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
B	15,904	7,672	₦49.4bn	₦48.2bn	33%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	30,801	11,429	₦77.6bn	₦73.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	1,849	579	₦9.65bn	₦9.47bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,216	378	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	933	432	₦11.1bn	₦10.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	766	293	₦949m	₦949m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	118	45	₦949m	₦925m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	78	34	₦639m	₦637m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	55	18	₦223m	₦223m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	22	5	₦23.4m	₦23.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	19	10	₦46.9m	₦46.9m	31%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	16	7	₦35.9m	₦35.9m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	10,168	3,720	₦19.2bn	₦18.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	9,194	3,135	₦59.1bn	₦56.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	6,120	2,431	₦3.48bn	₦3.33bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	5,908	2,234	₦841m	₦802m	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,112	1,571	₦1.22bn	₦1.16bn	25%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	371	139	₦18.7bn	₦17.2bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	34,464	12,666	₦90.1bn	₦88.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	1,409	564	₦12.4bn	₦9.14bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	29,466	10,750	₦71.8bn	₦69bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	965	201	₦178m	₦178m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	818	186	₦3.88bn	₦3.85bn	35%	3.1 yr
Shed	724	176	₦22.5m	₦22.5m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	609	271	₦9.09bn	₦8.83bn	31%	3.4 yr
Worship Center	337	132	₦220m	₦220m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	334	106	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Small	324	257	₦539m	₦380m	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	322	200	₦1.44bn	₦1.44bn	43%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	314	150	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	45%	2.4 yr
School	288	136	₦598m	₦598m	43%	2.4 yr
Residential	286	245	₦5.21bn	₦3.67bn	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	35,235	12,942	₦97.2bn	₦92.9bn
Retail	357	229	₦2.9bn	₦2.19bn
Industrial	281	59	₦2.52bn	₦2.34bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	33,549	12,312	₦83.9bn	₦79.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	1,338	462	₦7.14bn	₦7.02bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	986	456	₦11.5bn	₦11.1bn	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	21,012	7,668	₦87.8bn	₦83.8bn
3.0	7,246	2,861	₦6.36bn	₦5.58bn
2.0	5,320	2,060	₦1.73bn	₦1.51bn
1.0	1,194	322	₦89.7m	₦89.4m
5.0	467	160	₦2.06bn	₦2.05bn
0.0	402	80	₦11.3m	₦11.3m
6.0	232	79	₦4.53bn	₦4.42bn