Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Ibeju Lekki, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Ibeju Lekki has 148,036 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.52 GWp of roof capacity. 46% run a generator, and together they spend ₦193bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

148,036

Usable roof area

15.7 km²

3.52 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦193bn/yr

165 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibeju Lekki

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦193bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦189bn

Lifetime cash saved₦9.79tn

NPV₦1.39tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy124 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity575 MWp

Capex₦532bn

Year-one energy value₦294bn

Lifetime energy value₦13.5tn

NPV₦2.09tn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Ibeju Lekki's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 575 MWp
Capital cost: ₦532bn
Year 1 savings: ₦294bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.09tn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibeju Lekki pays back quickly

Of the 147,079 buildings in Ibeju Lekki with a modelled payback, 76.2% pay back inside five years and 40.6% inside three.

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How much of Ibeju Lekki's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibeju Lekki consume 428 GWh/yr but want 551 GWh/yr. The 22% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibeju Lekki

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibeju Lekki actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 147,079 buildings with a modelled result out of 148,036 in Ibeju Lekki. 132,381 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years59,677 (41%)

Under 5 years112,031 (76%)

Under 7 years132,258 (90%)

Under 10 years141,158 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%140,235 (95%)

Above 15%132,381 (89%)

Above 20%118,241 (80%)

Above 25%93,818 (63%)

CO₂ avoided

341 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

72.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

124 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

265k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibeju Lekki.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ibeju Lekki

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	96,656	47,890	₦121bn	₦117bn	31%	3.4 yr
D	35,271	13,378	₦16.2bn	₦16bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	10,316	3,834	₦34.9bn	₦34.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	4,442	2,418	₦11.3bn	₦11.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
B	1,351	603	₦9.78bn	₦9.77bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	138,767	61,424	₦81.7bn	₦79.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	4,284	3,259	₦24.6bn	₦24.3bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	3,217	2,396	₦951m	₦951m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	980	621	₦82.2bn	₦80.1bn	43%	2.4 yr
Industrial	474	245	₦2.66bn	₦2.64bn	37%	2.9 yr
Worship	134	79	₦143m	₦143m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	73	45	₦701m	₦675m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	64	32	₦100m	₦100m	35%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	25	12	₦41.3m	₦41.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	10	4	₦7.64m	₦7.64m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	8	6	₦237m	₦237m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	42,660	20,666	₦47.7bn	₦46.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	38,449	16,975	₦2.43bn	₦2.42bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	27,940	12,559	₦7.38bn	₦7.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	22,088	9,742	₦2.5bn	₦2.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	16,026	7,700	₦46bn	₦45.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	873	481	₦87.3bn	₦85.2bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	55,057	17,917	₦18.8bn	₦18.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	46,478	24,519	₦80.1bn	₦78.6bn	35%	3.1 yr
Dense Urban	24,537	13,484	₦20.3bn	₦20.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unclassified	17,006	8,041	₦46.2bn	₦44bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	4,958	4,162	₦28bn	₦27.5bn	69%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	50,174	19,072	₦12.8bn	₦12.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	29,993	13,235	₦2.02bn	₦2.02bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	18,916	6,449	₦3.8bn	₦3.75bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	18,191	10,408	₦8.17bn	₦8.02bn	45%	2.4 yr
Residential	18,049	10,909	₦54.2bn	₦52.3bn	45%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,220	2,397	₦956m	₦956m	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial	2,646	2,304	₦17.5bn	₦17.2bn	45%	2.4 yr
Apartment	2,444	943	₦500m	₦500m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	978	390	₦187m	₦187m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	881	545	₦80.7bn	₦78.8bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	788	461	₦3.12bn	₦3.11bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	256	154	₦810m	₦810m	47%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	139,110	64,812	₦158bn	₦154bn
Industrial	8,894	3,295	₦35.5bn	₦35.1bn
Commercial	16	16	₦34m	₦34m
Farmland	11	0	₦255k	₦255k
Farmyard	5	0	₦90.1k	₦90.1k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	143,044	64,432	₦87.6bn	₦85.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	3,577	2,847	₦21.1bn	₦20.9bn	43%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	1,415	844	₦84.7bn	₦82.6bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	43,152	22,740	₦105bn	₦102bn
4.0	40,833	15,111	₦58.9bn	₦57.8bn
0.0	28,580	12,611	₦1.92bn	₦1.92bn
2.0	26,307	12,534	₦6.79bn	₦6.62bn
1.0	6,325	2,741	₦585m	₦585m
5.0	2,252	1,884	₦8.85bn	₦8.85bn
6.0	587	502	₦11.6bn	₦11.4bn