Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Alimosho, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Alimosho has 519,239 buildings with a viable rooftop and 10.7 GWp of roof capacity. 36% run a generator, and together they spend ₦352bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

519,239

Usable roof area

47.8 km²

10.7 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦352bn/yr

197 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Alimosho

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦352bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦349bn

Lifetime cash saved₦19.9tn

NPV₦2.47tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy437 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.59 GWp

Capex₦1.64tn

Year-one energy value₦845bn

Lifetime energy value₦39.7tn

NPV₦5.97tn

Median IRR57%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Alimosho's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.59 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.64tn
Year 1 savings: ₦845bn/yr
NPV: ₦5.97tn
Median IRR: 57%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Alimosho pays back quickly

Of the 518,927 buildings in Alimosho with a modelled payback, 87.9% pay back inside five years and 19.9% inside three.

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How much of Alimosho's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Alimosho consume 901 GWh/yr but want 1.34 TWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Alimosho

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Alimosho actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 518,927 buildings with a modelled result out of 519,239 in Alimosho. 505,183 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years103,480 (20%)

Under 5 years455,910 (88%)

Under 7 years504,840 (97%)

Under 10 years516,008 (99%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%515,250 (99%)

Above 15%505,183 (97%)

Above 20%475,851 (92%)

Above 25%267,129 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

782 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

126 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

437 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

2.45m

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Alimosho.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Alimosho

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	215,200	68,402	₦125bn	₦125bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	154,097	63,160	₦78.8bn	₦78.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	109,135	36,441	₦107bn	₦106bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	20,831	12,691	₦26.7bn	₦26.2bn	41%	2.6 yr
A	19,976	6,402	₦14.1bn	₦13.9bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	502,099	180,072	₦299bn	₦298bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	6,941	2,733	₦21.2bn	₦20.8bn	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	4,921	2,171	₦22.7bn	₦21.3bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	2,044	929	₦1.31bn	₦1.29bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,138	355	₦940m	₦931m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	721	261	₦3.06bn	₦3.04bn	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	650	279	₦2.2bn	₦2.15bn	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	279	104	₦927m	₦914m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	209	88	₦309m	₦309m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	171	68	₦156m	₦156m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	66	36	₦115m	₦115m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	157,339	57,689	₦130bn	₦130bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	150,013	52,501	₦7.99bn	₦7.93bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	88,826	31,448	₦20.6bn	₦20.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	65,247	23,013	₦7.56bn	₦7.55bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	57,203	22,191	₦159bn	₦159bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	611	254	₦25.7bn	₦24.3bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	510,652	183,278	₦336bn	₦333bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	8,587	3,818	₦16.1bn	₦15.7bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	364,794	122,103	₦216bn	₦216bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	81,482	30,937	₦34.2bn	₦34.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	22,950	9,078	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	11,916	7,878	₦9.16bn	₦9.11bn	41%	2.6 yr
Apartment	8,885	3,563	₦4.05bn	₦4.05bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	7,805	4,829	₦32.5bn	₦31.7bn	39%	2.6 yr
Duplex	4,246	1,678	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	2,541	1,107	₦17.5bn	₦16.5bn	31%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	1,922	851	₦2.49bn	₦2.49bn	43%	2.6 yr
School	1,846	814	₦1.63bn	₦1.63bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial	1,757	733	₦5.33bn	₦5.32bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unknown	1,290	509	₦4.79bn	₦4.59bn	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	509,132	182,368	₦344bn	₦341bn
Farmland	6,756	4,094	₦4.9bn	₦4.85bn
Retail	3,098	587	₦2.64bn	₦2.64bn
Industrial	253	47	₦406m	₦397m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	511,412	183,876	₦316bn	₦315bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	5,402	2,362	₦25.3bn	₦23.9bn	41%	2.6 yr
SME High	2,425	858	₦9.98bn	₦9.77bn	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	243,270	86,751	₦254bn	₦253bn
3.0	124,974	46,364	₦73bn	₦71.6bn
2.0	109,279	38,158	₦12.5bn	₦12.5bn
1.0	26,138	8,734	₦1.06bn	₦1.05bn
0.0	14,263	6,591	₦736m	₦736m
5.0	1,059	372	₦4.64bn	₦4.62bn
6.0	256	126	₦5.27bn	₦5.12bn