Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Ifako/Ijaye, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Ifako/Ijaye has 110,426 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.59 GWp of roof capacity. 36% run a generator, and together they spend ₦106bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

110,426

Usable roof area

11.5 km²

2.59 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦106bn/yr

51.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ifako/Ijaye

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦106bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦104bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.09tn

NPV₦718bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy159 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity550 MWp

Capex₦558bn

Year-one energy value₦273bn

Lifetime energy value₦12.7tn

NPV₦1.88tn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Ifako/Ijaye's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 550 MWp
Capital cost: ₦558bn
Year 1 savings: ₦273bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.88tn
Median IRR: 55%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ifako/Ijaye pays back quickly

Of the 110,426 buildings in Ifako/Ijaye with a modelled payback, 91.4% pay back inside five years and 16.2% inside three.

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How much of Ifako/Ijaye's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ifako/Ijaye consume 313 GWh/yr but want 472 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ifako/Ijaye

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ifako/Ijaye actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 110,426 buildings with a modelled result out of 110,426 in Ifako/Ijaye. 109,369 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,900 (16%)

Under 5 years100,916 (91%)

Under 7 years109,317 (99%)

Under 10 years110,311 (100%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%110,270 (100%)

Above 15%109,369 (99%)

Above 20%105,101 (95%)

Above 25%42,818 (39%)

CO₂ avoided

250 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

30.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

159 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

708k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ifako/Ijaye.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ifako/Ijaye

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	51,251	21,159	₦59bn	₦58.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	50,458	15,195	₦38.9bn	₦37.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	8,031	2,895	₦6.67bn	₦6.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	686	362	₦955m	₦938m	37%	2.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	105,571	37,228	₦77.6bn	₦76.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,901	916	₦7.81bn	₦7.63bn	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	1,495	728	₦17.2bn	₦16.3bn	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	687	387	₦570m	₦570m	33%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	218	99	₦1.05bn	₦986m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	153	70	₦510m	₦509m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	135	46	₦175m	₦175m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	97	54	₦369m	₦365m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	84	49	₦113m	₦113m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	46	16	₦71.1m	₦71m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	39	18	₦60m	₦60m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	31,889	11,155	₦1.78bn	₦1.77bn	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	28,965	10,523	₦25.6bn	₦25bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	18,148	6,206	₦4.1bn	₦4.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	16,407	6,622	₦51.8bn	₦51.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	14,522	4,944	₦1.66bn	₦1.66bn	23%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	495	161	₦20.6bn	₦19.7bn	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	108,461	38,592	₦99.1bn	₦97.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	1,965	1,019	₦6.38bn	₦6.35bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	100,776	34,860	₦75.3bn	₦74.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	3,797	1,870	₦145m	₦145m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	794	365	₦15.4bn	₦14.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial	731	386	₦3.02bn	₦3.02bn	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Small	551	318	₦289m	₦237m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	498	256	₦918m	₦918m	41%	2.6 yr
School	477	246	₦617m	₦617m	41%	2.6 yr
Residential	444	178	₦1.93bn	₦1.64bn	25%	4.1 yr
Worship Center	357	197	₦268m	₦268m	33%	3.1 yr
Unknown	322	154	₦1.45bn	₦1.39bn	31%	3.6 yr
Place Of Worship	272	157	₦137m	₦137m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	163	96	₦457m	₦457m	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	109,192	39,230	₦99.2bn	₦97.4bn
Retail	691	171	₦1.76bn	₦1.76bn
Industrial	543	210	₦4.54bn	₦4.54bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	108,335	38,636	₦85.3bn	₦84.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	1,573	762	₦17.5bn	₦16.7bn	39%	2.6 yr
SME High	518	213	₦2.72bn	₦2.6bn	33%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	46,984	17,730	₦86.5bn	₦85.8bn
2.0	27,615	9,234	₦3.08bn	₦2.75bn
3.0	27,480	9,448	₦13bn	₦12.4bn
1.0	5,982	2,119	₦223m	₦223m
0.0	2,122	997	₦68.4m	₦68.4m
5.0	190	64	₦1.44bn	₦1.38bn
6.0	53	19	₦1.21bn	₦1.11bn