Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Kosofe, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Kosofe has 122,142 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.03 GWp of roof capacity. 29% run a generator, and together they spend ₦211bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

122,142

Usable roof area

13.5 km²

3.03 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦211bn/yr

108 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kosofe

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦211bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦193bn

Lifetime cash saved₦11tn

NPV₦1.36tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy261 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity961 MWp

Capex₦923bn

Year-one energy value₦412bn

Lifetime energy value₦19tn

NPV₦2.73tn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Kosofe's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 961 MWp
Capital cost: ₦923bn
Year 1 savings: ₦412bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.73tn
Median IRR: 55%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kosofe pays back quickly

Of the 122,123 buildings in Kosofe with a modelled payback, 93.7% pay back inside five years and 16.4% inside three.

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How much of Kosofe's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kosofe consume 612 GWh/yr but want 873 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kosofe

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kosofe actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 122,123 buildings with a modelled result out of 122,142 in Kosofe. 120,360 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years19,987 (16%)

Under 5 years114,452 (94%)

Under 7 years120,313 (99%)

Under 10 years121,728 (100%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%121,657 (100%)

Above 15%120,360 (99%)

Above 20%117,354 (96%)

Above 25%55,513 (45%)

CO₂ avoided

447 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

57.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

261 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

1.11m

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kosofe.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kosofe

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	54,566	10,426	₦85.8bn	₦81.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	31,454	7,424	₦25.4bn	₦24.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	29,997	13,118	₦62bn	₦57.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	4,525	3,362	₦22bn	₦20.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
E	1,600	1,242	₦15.4bn	₦9.4bn	45%	2.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	103,564	29,054	₦144bn	₦129bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	9,172	3,095	₦43.2bn	₦41.9bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	5,174	1,853	₦3bn	₦3bn	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	1,907	653	₦15bn	₦14.5bn	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	1,180	519	₦823m	₦823m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	435	133	₦2.16bn	₦2bn	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	258	113	₦1.28bn	₦1.27bn	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	198	60	₦574m	₦567m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	144	55	₦190m	₦190m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	67	26	₦178m	₦178m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	43	11	₦56.2m	₦56.2m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	33,309	10,598	₦63bn	₦58.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	31,650	8,535	₦2.64bn	₦2.56bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	20,848	6,065	₦14.1bn	₦9.59bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	20,033	5,932	₦106bn	₦99.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	15,969	4,353	₦3.87bn	₦2.86bn	25%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	333	89	₦21.3bn	₦20bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	119,852	34,523	₦190bn	₦181bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,098	898	₦18.6bn	₦10.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	192	151	₦1.59bn	₦1.4bn	45%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	75,317	15,453	₦68.1bn	₦65bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	11,731	6,593	₦20.5bn	₦19.2bn	31%	3.4 yr
Shed	5,808	1,885	₦222m	₦222m	23%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,653	1,664	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	4,598	1,552	₦22.6bn	₦22.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Small	4,461	1,927	₦11.3bn	₦5.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	4,287	1,982	₦41.2bn	₦35.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	1,398	867	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,362	370	₦5.26bn	₦5.22bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,239	594	₦8.14bn	₦7.98bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	898	319	₦11.4bn	₦11.3bn	31%	3.6 yr
Unknown	857	237	₦4.07bn	₦3.94bn	29%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	116,776	34,498	₦192bn	₦177bn
Retail	2,639	582	₦3.2bn	₦3.13bn
Industrial	1,924	358	₦13bn	₦11.5bn
Commercial	612	20	₦836m	₦836m
Farmland	191	114	₦1.35bn	₦1.08bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	113,086	32,290	₦160bn	₦144bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	6,996	2,550	₦34.4bn	₦33.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	2,060	732	₦16bn	₦15.5bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	54,408	16,840	₦114bn	₦108bn
3.0	27,217	7,630	₦54.3bn	₦47bn
2.0	25,324	6,193	₦8.82bn	₦6.01bn
1.0	5,804	1,555	₦2.19bn	₦632m
0.0	4,607	1,602	₦185m	₦185m
5.0	3,627	1,360	₦15.9bn	₦15.8bn
6.0	1,155	392	₦15.4bn	₦15.1bn