Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Badagry, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Badagry has 218,972 buildings with a viable rooftop and 4.3 GWp of roof capacity. 55% run a generator, and together they spend ₦181bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

218,972

Usable roof area

19.2 km²

4.3 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦181bn/yr

152 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.6 yr

Median IRR 41% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Badagry

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦181bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦173bn

Lifetime cash saved₦8.96tn

NPV₦1.34tn

Median IRR41%

Median payback2.6 yr

Unlocked energy89 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity409 MWp

Capex₦409bn

Year-one energy value₦295bn

Lifetime energy value₦13.8tn

NPV₦2.26tn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Badagry's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 409 MWp
Capital cost: ₦409bn
Year 1 savings: ₦295bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.26tn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Badagry pays back quickly

Of the 218,045 buildings in Badagry with a modelled payback, 80.7% pay back inside five years and 53.4% inside three.

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How much of Badagry's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Badagry consume 287 GWh/yr but want 376 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Badagry

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Badagry actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 218,045 buildings with a modelled result out of 218,972 in Badagry. 200,379 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years116,395 (53%)

Under 5 years175,898 (81%)

Under 7 years200,269 (92%)

Under 10 years210,019 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%208,582 (95%)

Above 15%200,379 (92%)

Above 20%183,453 (84%)

Above 25%162,646 (74%)

CO₂ avoided

302 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

88.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

89 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

477k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Badagry.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Badagry

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	212,075	117,498	₦174bn	₦166bn	41%	2.6 yr
C	3,048	1,287	₦1.58bn	₦1.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	2,009	448	₦2.03bn	₦1.93bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	1,593	975	₦3.39bn	₦3.09bn	31%	3.4 yr
B	247	239	₦291m	₦283m	61%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	208,302	114,347	₦145bn	₦138bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial General	5,074	3,068	₦19.1bn	₦18.8bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	3,660	1,617	₦627m	₦627m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	1,213	930	₦14.4bn	₦13.7bn	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	346	252	₦1.46bn	₦1.44bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	162	113	₦178m	₦178m	47%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	118	69	₦152m	₦152m	41%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	60	36	₦372m	₦370m	39%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	28	11	₦49.7m	₦49.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	5	3	₦2.15m	₦2.15m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	4	1	₦1.51m	₦1.51m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	74,348	43,722	₦80.4bn	₦76.4bn	45%	2.4 yr
Under 30m2	50,531	25,464	₦3.09bn	₦3.07bn	29%	3.4 yr
50 100m2	45,997	24,929	₦14.2bn	₦13.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
30 50m2	31,401	16,175	₦3.8bn	₦3.72bn	37%	2.9 yr
250 1000m2	16,381	9,939	₦62.5bn	₦59.9bn	47%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	314	218	₦17.3bn	₦16bn	51%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	161,539	91,298	₦104bn	₦102bn	41%	2.6 yr
Dense Urban	22,012	12,070	₦24.3bn	₦23.4bn	51%	2.1 yr
Urban	20,265	10,138	₦30.4bn	₦29.5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Unclassified	15,156	6,941	₦22.6bn	₦17.4bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	52,595	30,698	₦16.2bn	₦16.2bn	39%	2.6 yr
Residential Informal	42,170	14,779	₦12.9bn	₦12.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	38,654	24,616	₦16.7bn	₦16.2bn	61%	1.9 yr
Shed	34,117	17,392	₦2.48bn	₦2.48bn	39%	2.9 yr
Residential	30,612	20,935	₦93.5bn	₦86.6bn	61%	1.6 yr
Apartment	6,764	3,907	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	43%	2.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,658	1,615	₦625m	₦625m	33%	3.1 yr
Duplex	3,334	1,982	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial	2,461	1,462	₦8.96bn	₦8.88bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,545	847	₦6.21bn	₦6.09bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	929	718	₦11.4bn	₦11.1bn	43%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	427	343	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	218,553	120,061	₦180bn	₦171bn
Retail	285	273	₦385m	₦385m
Industrial	82	79	₦262m	₦250m
Commercial	52	34	₦1.17bn	₦1.15bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	213,242	116,860	₦150bn	₦142bn	41%	2.6 yr
SME High	4,197	2,414	₦15.6bn	₦15.4bn	39%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	1,533	1,173	₦15.8bn	₦15.1bn	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	72,442	39,760	₦37.2bn	₦36.9bn
3.0	65,021	40,551	₦111bn	₦106bn
2.0	37,238	18,026	₦17bn	₦14.2bn
0.0	33,975	17,301	₦2.47bn	₦2.47bn
1.0	7,543	3,215	₦1.37bn	₦1.34bn
5.0	2,216	1,234	₦5.66bn	₦5.65bn
6.0	537	360	₦6.71bn	₦6.53bn