Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Oshodi/Isolo, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Oshodi/Isolo has 128,168 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.5 GWp of roof capacity. 53% run a generator, and together they spend ₦272bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

128,168

Usable roof area

15.5 km²

3.5 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦272bn/yr

146 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.1 yr

Median IRR 35% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oshodi/Isolo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦272bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦265bn

Lifetime cash saved₦15.4tn

NPV₦2.06tn

Median IRR35%

Median payback3.1 yr

Unlocked energy360 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.05 GWp

Capex₦1.04tn

Year-one energy value₦565bn

Lifetime energy value₦26.5tn

NPV₦4.04tn

Median IRR65%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Oshodi/Isolo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.05 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.04tn
Year 1 savings: ₦565bn/yr
NPV: ₦4.04tn
Median IRR: 65%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oshodi/Isolo pays back quickly

Of the 128,128 buildings in Oshodi/Isolo with a modelled payback, 96.0% pay back inside five years and 44.3% inside three.

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How much of Oshodi/Isolo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oshodi/Isolo consume 770 GWh/yr but want 1.13 TWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oshodi/Isolo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oshodi/Isolo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 128,128 buildings with a modelled result out of 128,168 in Oshodi/Isolo. 126,145 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years56,735 (44%)

Under 5 years122,944 (96%)

Under 7 years126,153 (98%)

Under 10 years127,474 (99%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%127,339 (99%)

Above 15%126,145 (98%)

Above 20%124,028 (97%)

Above 25%119,537 (93%)

CO₂ avoided

610 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

82.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

360 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

1.31m

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oshodi/Isolo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oshodi/Isolo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	51,770	29,890	₦105bn	₦103bn	35%	3.1 yr
C	49,529	27,595	₦79bn	₦77.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
A	25,301	9,607	₦87.3bn	₦83.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
D	1,568	338	₦428m	₦428m	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	115,629	60,408	₦187bn	₦182bn	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial General	5,162	2,847	₦40.3bn	₦39.4bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,427	1,124	₦1.69bn	₦1.69bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	2,356	1,481	₦34.7bn	₦34.2bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	1,481	954	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	39%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	474	247	₦3.53bn	₦3.31bn	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	220	111	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	186	107	₦686m	₦682m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	114	78	₦179m	₦179m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	74	43	₦140m	₦139m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	45	30	₦86m	₦86m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	34,175	17,586	₦3.85bn	₦3.83bn	31%	3.6 yr
100 250m2	33,266	17,531	₦58.8bn	₦57.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
250 1000m2	22,665	12,870	₦144bn	₦142bn	37%	2.9 yr
50 100m2	20,740	10,599	₦11.5bn	₦9.71bn	35%	3.1 yr
30 50m2	16,650	8,546	₦4.31bn	₦3.93bn	33%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	672	298	₦48.8bn	₦47.8bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	125,586	65,961	₦257bn	₦252bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unclassified	2,582	1,469	₦14.8bn	₦12.4bn	33%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	101,911	54,150	₦168bn	₦167bn	33%	3.4 yr
Shed	6,694	2,997	₦282m	₦282m	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	2,959	1,222	₦2.68bn	₦1.26bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential	2,434	1,005	₦15.8bn	₦13.1bn	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,091	1,013	₦653m	₦653m	35%	3.1 yr
Residential Formal	1,468	909	₦671m	₦671m	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	1,403	846	₦30.1bn	₦29.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,280	750	₦7.99bn	₦7.95bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,266	655	₦11.3bn	₦11.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	862	400	₦13bn	₦12.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	787	522	₦2.18bn	₦2.18bn	51%	2.1 yr
School	760	500	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	122,734	65,498	₦240bn	₦233bn
Industrial	3,156	1,180	₦27.6bn	₦27.4bn
Retail	1,561	671	₦3.29bn	₦3.22bn
Farmland	546	38	₦108m	₦108m
Commercial	171	43	₦844m	₦680m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	122,581	64,363	₦208bn	₦202bn	33%	3.4 yr
SME High	3,123	1,551	₦27.6bn	₦27.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	2,464	1,516	₦36.2bn	₦35.6bn	47%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	57,058	31,305	₦206bn	₦202bn
3.0	29,894	15,477	₦35bn	₦32.2bn
2.0	27,704	14,242	₦5.91bn	₦5.77bn
1.0	6,758	3,416	₦666m	₦659m
0.0	4,663	1,989	₦183m	₦183m
5.0	1,346	629	₦6.25bn	₦6.21bn
6.0	745	372	₦18bn	₦17.8bn