Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Ikorodu, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Ikorodu has 497,934 buildings with a viable rooftop and 10.9 GWp of roof capacity. 50% run a generator, and together they spend ₦326bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

497,934

Usable roof area

48.3 km²

10.9 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦326bn/yr

249 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ikorodu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦326bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦318bn

Lifetime cash saved₦16.7tn

NPV₦2.29tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy219 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity992 MWp

Capex₦978bn

Year-one energy value₦535bn

Lifetime energy value₦24.9tn

NPV₦3.81tn

Median IRR57%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Ikorodu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 992 MWp
Capital cost: ₦978bn
Year 1 savings: ₦535bn/yr
NPV: ₦3.81tn
Median IRR: 57%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ikorodu pays back quickly

Of the 497,033 buildings in Ikorodu with a modelled payback, 81.8% pay back inside five years and 38.4% inside three.

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How much of Ikorodu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ikorodu consume 691 GWh/yr but want 910 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ikorodu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ikorodu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 497,033 buildings with a modelled result out of 497,934 in Ikorodu. 461,952 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years190,643 (38%)

Under 5 years406,563 (82%)

Under 7 years461,481 (93%)

Under 10 years485,117 (98%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%482,832 (97%)

Above 15%461,952 (93%)

Above 20%425,044 (85%)

Above 25%294,149 (59%)

CO₂ avoided

594 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

134 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

219 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

928k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ikorodu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ikorodu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	225,209	110,546	₦115bn	₦111bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	164,403	86,964	₦131bn	₦128bn	35%	3.1 yr
C	97,541	44,411	₦66.1bn	₦64bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	6,741	2,817	₦11.7bn	₦11.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	4,040	2,012	₦3.15bn	₦3.05bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	483,081	238,352	₦217bn	₦213bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	5,811	3,333	₦27.7bn	₦27bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	3,550	2,039	₦64.6bn	₦61.3bn	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	2,715	1,431	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	1,362	866	₦13bn	₦12.2bn	39%	2.9 yr
Worship	810	417	₦543m	₦543m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	294	158	₦1.39bn	₦1.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	141	62	₦230m	₦229m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	87	54	₦217m	₦212m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	66	32	₦78.8m	₦78.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	17	6	₦27.4m	₦27.4m	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	173,563	88,483	₦116bn	₦115bn	31%	3.4 yr
Under 30m2	117,004	55,993	₦5.57bn	₦5.49bn	23%	4.9 yr
50 100m2	95,387	46,291	₦19.2bn	₦18.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	61,874	30,123	₦5.73bn	₦5.69bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	49,325	25,393	₦104bn	₦102bn	33%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	781	467	₦75.8bn	₦71.5bn	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	452,367	225,824	₦289bn	₦281bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	19,688	10,394	₦16.3bn	₦16.2bn	43%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	15,713	7,346	₦18bn	₦16.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	10,166	3,186	₦3.4bn	₦3.37bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	205,129	96,668	₦58.5bn	₦58.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	142,451	68,181	₦59.4bn	₦59.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	39,033	20,705	₦2.92bn	₦2.92bn	33%	3.1 yr
Residential Small	32,107	18,014	₦14.3bn	₦13.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Residential	26,942	15,624	₦70.5bn	₦68.1bn	41%	2.6 yr
Apartment	26,796	13,762	₦8.34bn	₦8.34bn	31%	3.4 yr
Duplex	10,434	5,282	₦3.1bn	₦3.1bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,577	1,382	₦821m	₦821m	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	2,326	1,399	₦59.9bn	₦57bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,067	1,125	₦9bn	₦8.94bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	1,341	785	₦2.27bn	₦2.27bn	45%	2.4 yr
School	1,273	734	₦1.87bn	₦1.87bn	45%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	487,503	241,237	₦267bn	₦261bn
Farmland	6,196	3,589	₦7.41bn	₦6.76bn
Industrial	3,284	1,655	₦51.1bn	₦49.2bn
Retail	901	261	₦833m	₦833m
Commercial	49	7	₦7.61m	₦7.61m
Orchard	1	1	₦1.05m	₦1.05m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	489,997	242,117	₦230bn	₦226bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	4,621	2,781	₦76.9bn	₦72.8bn	43%	2.6 yr
SME High	3,316	1,852	₦19.6bn	₦19bn	37%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	280,370	133,591	₦184bn	₦181bn
3.0	108,256	57,662	₦106bn	₦103bn
2.0	58,045	28,669	₦10.3bn	₦9.85bn
0.0	36,356	19,623	₦2.78bn	₦2.78bn
1.0	12,937	6,048	₦835m	₦832m
5.0	1,595	951	₦7.51bn	₦7.49bn
6.0	375	206	₦14.2bn	₦13.1bn