Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Epe, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Epe has 90,324 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.17 GWp of roof capacity. 51% run a generator, and together they spend ₦146bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

90,324

Usable roof area

9.65 km²

2.17 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦146bn/yr

134 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.1 yr

Median IRR 35% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Epe

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦146bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦141bn

Lifetime cash saved₦7.29tn

NPV₦1.1tn

Median IRR35%

Median payback3.1 yr

Unlocked energy75.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity352 MWp

Capex₦344bn

Year-one energy value₦253bn

Lifetime energy value₦11.8tn

NPV₦1.94tn

Median IRR81%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Epe's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 352 MWp
Capital cost: ₦344bn
Year 1 savings: ₦253bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.94tn
Median IRR: 81%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Epe pays back quickly

Of the 89,979 buildings in Epe with a modelled payback, 80.5% pay back inside five years and 49.7% inside three.

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How much of Epe's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Epe consume 234 GWh/yr but want 309 GWh/yr. The 24% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Epe

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Epe actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 89,979 buildings with a modelled result out of 90,324 in Epe. 81,150 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years44,721 (50%)

Under 5 years72,428 (80%)

Under 7 years81,067 (90%)

Under 10 years84,842 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%84,322 (93%)

Above 15%81,150 (90%)

Above 20%74,762 (83%)

Above 25%58,670 (65%)

CO₂ avoided

242 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

70.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

75.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

404k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Epe.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Epe

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	89,924	45,449	₦144bn	₦139bn	35%	3.1 yr
D	335	222	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	43%	2.4 yr
C	33	18	₦160m	₦158m	25%	4.1 yr
B	32	0	₦759k	₦759k	5%	13.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	83,666	40,724	₦100bn	₦97.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	3,261	2,494	₦25.6bn	₦25bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	2,128	1,505	₦494m	₦494m	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	626	500	₦17.9bn	₦16.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	353	265	₦491m	₦488m	45%	2.4 yr
Industrial	216	152	₦1.27bn	₦1.26bn	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	31	23	₦376m	₦269m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	29	20	₦37.6m	₦37.5m	41%	2.6 yr
Mall Retail	9	3	₦20.8m	₦20.8m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	3	2	₦3.34m	₦3.34m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	2	1	₦652k	₦652k	33%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	29,417	15,598	₦42.6bn	₦41.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
Under 30m2	20,798	9,701	₦1.54bn	₦1.52bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	16,924	8,320	₦6.96bn	₦6.83bn	33%	3.1 yr
30 50m2	11,881	5,463	₦1.82bn	₦1.78bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	10,864	6,261	₦62.3bn	₦60.6bn	45%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	440	346	₦31.2bn	₦28.9bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	35,902	17,808	₦35.9bn	₦35.2bn	33%	3.4 yr
Urban	21,551	12,467	₦46.3bn	₦45.3bn	55%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	17,302	6,667	₦38.2bn	₦35.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	13,521	7,060	₦18.5bn	₦18.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Rural	2,048	1,687	₦7.35bn	₦7.15bn	69%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	20,189	12,177	₦78.1bn	₦75.2bn	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	18,032	9,933	₦8.6bn	₦8.42bn	53%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	17,048	6,064	₦5.26bn	₦5.24bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	16,162	7,241	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	8,656	3,966	₦6.27bn	₦6.26bn	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	2,566	943	₦671m	₦671m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,127	1,504	₦488m	₦488m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,636	1,230	₦9.86bn	₦9.77bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial	1,002	796	₦12.1bn	₦11.6bn	47%	2.4 yr
Duplex	871	326	₦251m	₦251m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	632	494	₦16.3bn	₦15.1bn	47%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	218	177	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	90,107	45,588	₦143bn	₦138bn
Industrial	131	87	₦3.55bn	₦3.29bn
Farmland	86	14	₦12.6m	₦12.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	86,784	42,979	₦105bn	₦102bn	29%	3.4 yr
SME High	2,707	2,067	₦22.1bn	₦21.5bn	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	833	643	₦19.1bn	₦17.8bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	33,174	19,672	₦99.4bn	₦95.4bn
4.0	25,859	10,413	₦24.3bn	₦24bn
0.0	16,217	7,241	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn
2.0	10,872	5,637	₦4.63bn	₦4.48bn
1.0	2,552	1,565	₦697m	₦687m
5.0	1,251	843	₦6.49bn	₦6.41bn
6.0	399	318	₦9.78bn	₦9.31bn