Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Amuwo Odofin, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Amuwo Odofin has 111,413 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.1 GWp of roof capacity. 46% run a generator, and together they spend ₦251bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

111,413

Usable roof area

13.8 km²

3.1 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦251bn/yr

163 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Amuwo Odofin

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦251bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦234bn

Lifetime cash saved₦12.5tn

NPV₦1.72tn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy223 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity865 MWp

Capex₦819bn

Year-one energy value₦422bn

Lifetime energy value₦19.3tn

NPV₦2.92tn

Median IRR57%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Amuwo Odofin's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 865 MWp
Capital cost: ₦819bn
Year 1 savings: ₦422bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.92tn
Median IRR: 57%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Amuwo Odofin pays back quickly

Of the 111,114 buildings in Amuwo Odofin with a modelled payback, 82.9% pay back inside five years and 30.0% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Amuwo Odofin's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Amuwo Odofin consume 629 GWh/yr but want 852 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Amuwo Odofin

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Amuwo Odofin actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 111,114 buildings with a modelled result out of 111,413 in Amuwo Odofin. 103,696 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years33,377 (30%)

Under 5 years92,065 (83%)

Under 7 years103,616 (93%)

Under 10 years108,390 (98%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%107,905 (97%)

Above 15%103,696 (93%)

Above 20%95,780 (86%)

Above 25%83,192 (75%)

CO₂ avoided

481 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

84.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

223 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

744k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Amuwo Odofin.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Amuwo Odofin

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	50,507	23,156	₦45.8bn	₦45.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	22,023	12,388	₦40.7bn	₦39.9bn	33%	3.4 yr
B	15,790	5,363	₦23.8bn	₦23.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
A	14,009	5,593	₦94.8bn	₦87.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	9,084	5,211	₦46.2bn	₦38.4bn	57%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	102,342	47,113	₦157bn	₦143bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	3,780	1,870	₦22.5bn	₦22.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,279	1,262	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	1,585	794	₦61.2bn	₦59.4bn	41%	2.6 yr
Worship	537	278	₦542m	₦542m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	316	157	₦4.58bn	₦4.43bn	39%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	305	129	₦2.23bn	₦2bn	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	105	41	₦494m	₦493m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	77	29	₦67m	₦67m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	50	22	₦90.4m	₦90.3m	31%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	37	16	₦44.5m	₦44.3m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	32,952	14,589	₦2.35bn	₦2.32bn	25%	4.4 yr
100 250m2	25,807	12,935	₦51bn	₦45.9bn	31%	3.6 yr
50 100m2	18,204	8,376	₦8.31bn	₦8.05bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	17,182	8,176	₦99.7bn	₦92.4bn	31%	3.6 yr
30 50m2	16,157	7,138	₦2.55bn	₦2.49bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	1,111	497	₦87.6bn	₦83.2bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	103,987	48,063	₦211bn	₦201bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	5,708	2,984	₦34.4bn	₦29bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban	1,718	664	₦5.54bn	₦4.42bn	25%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	68,426	28,031	₦77.5bn	₦71bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	16,713	8,891	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Small	7,365	4,471	₦8.46bn	₦8.24bn	41%	2.6 yr
Residential	6,060	3,945	₦65.9bn	₦58.1bn	43%	2.6 yr
Residential Formal	3,282	1,530	₦3.91bn	₦3.88bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,997	1,041	₦452m	₦452m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,362	888	₦9.91bn	₦9.82bn	39%	2.9 yr
Institutional	907	479	₦58.8bn	₦57.1bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	652	269	₦2.79bn	₦2.72bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	631	215	₦5.74bn	₦5.65bn	35%	3.1 yr
Unknown	481	201	₦2.24bn	₦2.23bn	31%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	445	282	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn	43%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	96,898	46,272	₦168bn	₦155bn
Industrial	9,565	4,098	₦78.3bn	₦74bn
Retail	3,830	1,032	₦4.3bn	₦4.3bn
Farmland	1,004	301	₦830m	₦741m
Commercial	116	8	₦144m	₦136m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	106,926	49,320	₦166bn	₦152bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	2,694	1,492	₦19.4bn	₦19.2bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,793	899	₦65.6bn	₦63.6bn	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	35,625	15,481	₦134bn	₦128bn
3.0	27,948	14,082	₦89.6bn	₦79.7bn
2.0	23,638	9,955	₦8.41bn	₦7.66bn
0.0	13,734	7,524	₦889m	₦889m
1.0	9,046	3,962	₦953m	₦929m
5.0	1,032	537	₦6.82bn	₦6.75bn
6.0	390	170	₦10.6bn	₦10.3bn