Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Ikeja, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Ikeja has 80,383 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.61 GWp of roof capacity. 34% run a generator, and together they spend ₦196bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

80,383

Usable roof area

11.6 km²

2.61 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦196bn/yr

74.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ikeja

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦196bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦186bn

Lifetime cash saved₦11tn

NPV₦1.28tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy323 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity1.14 GWp

Capex₦1.02tn

Year-one energy value₦393bn

Lifetime energy value₦17.7tn

NPV₦2.41tn

Median IRR39%

Median payback2.6 yr

Three ways to size Ikeja's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 1.14 GWp
Capital cost: ₦1.02tn
Year 1 savings: ₦393bn/yr
NPV: ₦2.41tn
Median IRR: 39%
Median payback: 2.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ikeja pays back quickly

Of the 80,296 buildings in Ikeja with a modelled payback, 92.5% pay back inside five years and 10.5% inside three.

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How much of Ikeja's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ikeja consume 722 GWh/yr but want 1.05 TWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ikeja

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ikeja actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 80,296 buildings with a modelled result out of 80,383 in Ikeja. 79,219 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,448 (11%)

Under 5 years74,274 (93%)

Under 7 years79,192 (99%)

Under 10 years79,994 (100%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%79,949 (99%)

Above 15%79,219 (99%)

Above 20%76,788 (96%)

Above 25%38,202 (48%)

CO₂ avoided

478 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

30.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

323 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

573k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ikeja.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ikeja

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	60,412	16,394	₦160bn	₦153bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	17,578	10,029	₦34.3bn	₦31.3bn	33%	3.4 yr
C	2,314	518	₦820m	₦820m	25%	4.6 yr
D	79	30	₦1.11bn	₦1.1bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	63,165	21,087	₦65.4bn	₦60.5bn	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	8,430	2,888	₦51.4bn	₦48.7bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	3,541	1,308	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	2,156	713	₦63.4bn	₦61.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	1,033	336	₦8.32bn	₦7.49bn	33%	3.4 yr
Worship	881	331	₦666m	₦666m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	445	108	₦1.87bn	₦1.76bn	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	326	82	₦3.06bn	₦2.93bn	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	248	68	₦263m	₦263m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	103	32	₦192m	₦192m	29%	3.6 yr
Filling Station	55	18	₦86.6m	₦86.3m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	21,874	7,203	₦1.97bn	₦1.91bn	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	18,160	6,441	₦24.9bn	₦23.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	13,911	4,588	₦6.2bn	₦4.82bn	25%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	13,862	4,751	₦74.2bn	₦70.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	11,441	3,678	₦2.05bn	₦1.95bn	25%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	1,135	310	₦87bn	₦83.4bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	78,394	26,398	₦179bn	₦172bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	1,989	573	₦17.5bn	₦14.1bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	53,626	18,269	₦53.2bn	₦51.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	6,051	1,479	₦222m	₦222m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,276	1,280	₦841m	₦841m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	2,785	870	₦13.7bn	₦13.5bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,931	671	₦11.8bn	₦11.6bn	33%	3.1 yr
Residential	1,782	659	₦11.1bn	₦8.33bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	1,706	680	₦932m	₦794m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial	1,626	678	₦15.2bn	₦14.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	1,103	322	₦56.3bn	₦55.4bn	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial Retail	913	185	₦2.23bn	₦2.13bn	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	818	257	₦5.6bn	₦5.25bn	29%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	495	191	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	66,577	23,919	₦123bn	₦116bn
Industrial	10,225	2,456	₦67bn	₦64bn
Commercial	2,366	260	₦3.46bn	₦3.38bn
Retail	1,106	331	₦2.68bn	₦2.51bn
Farmland	109	5	₦82.6m	₦82.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	72,804	24,409	₦95.9bn	₦88.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	5,203	1,799	₦34.8bn	₦33.1bn	33%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	2,376	763	₦65.6bn	₦64bn	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	32,105	10,838	₦144bn	₦137bn
2.0	18,281	6,254	₦3.31bn	₦3.01bn
3.0	17,979	6,224	₦15.8bn	₦14.4bn
1.0	6,839	1,857	₦354m	₦354m
0.0	2,171	557	₦66.4m	₦66.4m
5.0	2,087	805	₦10.1bn	₦9.97bn
6.0	921	436	₦22.2bn	₦20.7bn