Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Ojo, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Ojo has 185,539 buildings with a viable rooftop and 4.23 GWp of roof capacity. 41% run a generator, and together they spend ₦296bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

185,539

Usable roof area

18.8 km²

4.23 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦296bn/yr

219 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ojo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦296bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦252bn

Lifetime cash saved₦13.3tn

NPV₦1.88tn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy181 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity740 MWp

Capex₦753bn

Year-one energy value₦452bn

Lifetime energy value₦21tn

NPV₦3.31tn

Median IRR59%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Ojo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 740 MWp
Capital cost: ₦753bn
Year 1 savings: ₦452bn/yr
NPV: ₦3.31tn
Median IRR: 59%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ojo pays back quickly

Of the 185,506 buildings in Ojo with a modelled payback, 89.3% pay back inside five years and 35.3% inside three.

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How much of Ojo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ojo consume 548 GWh/yr but want 729 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ojo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ojo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 185,506 buildings with a modelled result out of 185,539 in Ojo. 179,614 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years65,420 (35%)

Under 5 years165,701 (89%)

Under 7 years179,540 (97%)

Under 10 years183,742 (99%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%183,280 (99%)

Above 15%179,614 (97%)

Above 20%170,668 (92%)

Above 25%152,909 (82%)

CO₂ avoided

480 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

115 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

181 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

1.11m

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ojo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ojo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	88,033	32,379	₦102bn	₦98.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	82,856	38,396	₦186bn	₦144bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	14,600	5,525	₦9.18bn	₦9.18bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	50	0	₦3.52m	₦3.52m	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	178,901	72,764	₦253bn	₦209bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	2,696	1,344	₦13.1bn	₦12.8bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	1,767	1,039	₦26.4bn	₦25.5bn	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	958	462	₦945m	₦945m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	663	418	₦584m	₦584m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	256	131	₦1.74bn	₦1.69bn	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	133	64	₦541m	₦532m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	85	30	₦101m	₦101m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	53	33	₦261m	₦260m	39%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	20	12	₦41.1m	₦41.1m	35%	2.9 yr
Automotive	7	3	₦12m	₦12m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	58,258	25,050	₦120bn	₦97.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	45,969	17,671	₦6.69bn	₦3.28bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	35,196	14,320	₦19.3bn	₦17.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	23,311	9,146	₦4.57bn	₦4.16bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	22,402	9,884	₦115bn	₦100bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	403	229	₦31.1bn	₦29.7bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	175,453	70,907	₦212bn	₦203bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	7,282	3,784	₦45.5bn	₦29.1bn	31%	3.6 yr
Urban	2,804	1,609	₦39.2bn	₦20.2bn	53%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	92,874	34,043	₦64.2bn	₦64.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	48,376	17,460	₦40.4bn	₦39.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	11,942	5,990	₦796m	₦796m	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Small	9,672	6,370	₦20.8bn	₦17.7bn	47%	2.4 yr
Residential	7,358	5,438	₦119bn	₦79.9bn	51%	2.1 yr
Apartment	6,322	2,494	₦5.64bn	₦5.35bn	27%	4.1 yr
Duplex	2,314	949	₦2.18bn	₦2.18bn	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	1,099	657	₦22.7bn	₦22.1bn	33%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	650	230	₦99.6m	₦99.6m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	617	277	₦4.22bn	₦4.21bn	35%	3.1 yr
School	606	369	₦937m	₦937m	47%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	599	365	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	47%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	178,739	73,506	₦275bn	₦231bn
Retail	3,622	1,241	₦1.81bn	₦1.81bn
Farmland	2,626	1,235	₦4.68bn	₦4.52bn
Industrial	552	318	₦15.3bn	₦14.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	182,199	74,435	₦261bn	₦217bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	1,959	1,128	₦27.7bn	₦26.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
SME High	1,381	737	₦7.93bn	₦7.6bn	39%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	96,530	35,771	₦129bn	₦127bn
3.0	44,118	21,005	₦140bn	₦105bn
2.0	27,099	10,952	₦14.3bn	₦10.5bn
0.0	9,533	5,273	₦708m	₦708m
1.0	7,613	2,924	₦4.81bn	₦1.1bn
5.0	509	268	₦4.05bn	₦3.92bn
6.0	137	107	₦3.54bn	₦3.3bn