Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Surulere, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Surulere has 56,034 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.76 GWp of roof capacity. 26% run a generator, and together they spend ₦104bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

56,034

Usable roof area

7.81 km²

1.76 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦104bn/yr

39.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.6 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Surulere

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦104bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦99.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.14tn

NPV₦789bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.6 yr

Unlocked energy198 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity555 MWp

Capex₦529bn

Year-one energy value₦264bn

Lifetime energy value₦12.2tn

NPV₦1.83tn

Median IRR61%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Surulere's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 555 MWp
Capital cost: ₦529bn
Year 1 savings: ₦264bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.83tn
Median IRR: 61%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Surulere pays back quickly

Of the 56,013 buildings in Surulere with a modelled payback, 97.2% pay back inside five years and 26.5% inside three.

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How much of Surulere's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Surulere consume 369 GWh/yr but want 567 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Surulere

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Surulere actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 56,013 buildings with a modelled result out of 56,034 in Surulere. 55,595 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,859 (27%)

Under 5 years54,449 (97%)

Under 7 years55,599 (99%)

Under 10 years55,841 (100%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%55,801 (100%)

Above 15%55,595 (99%)

Above 20%54,909 (98%)

Above 25%52,882 (94%)

CO₂ avoided

266 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

198 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

574k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Surulere.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Surulere

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	37,720	6,806	₦64.9bn	₦62.1bn	29%	3.6 yr
B	18,314	7,971	₦39.1bn	₦37.2bn	31%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	43,927	11,667	₦49.9bn	₦45.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	5,932	1,462	₦27.7bn	₦27.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,264	517	₦978m	₦978m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	1,743	520	₦19.8bn	₦19.7bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	949	338	₦706m	₦706m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	504	106	₦2.74bn	₦2.59bn	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	304	63	₦933m	₦923m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	177	41	₦165m	₦165m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	128	34	₦891m	₦890m	39%	2.6 yr
Automotive	74	22	₦122m	₦122m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	32	7	₦47.4m	₦47.3m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	15,956	4,091	₦18.1bn	₦17.7bn	29%	3.6 yr
250 1000m2	11,812	3,698	₦50.8bn	₦48bn	29%	3.6 yr
Under 30m2	11,327	2,834	₦821m	₦805m	29%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	9,820	2,402	₦2.71bn	₦2.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	6,714	1,609	₦972m	₦883m	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	405	143	₦30.6bn	₦29.4bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	54,719	14,387	₦92.1bn	₦90.2bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unclassified	1,315	390	₦11.8bn	₦9.14bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	42,076	11,158	₦46.7bn	₦43.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,274	373	₦9.54bn	₦9.53bn	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,098	520	₦482m	₦482m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,709	345	₦5.54bn	₦5.54bn	37%	2.9 yr
Shed	1,456	446	₦48.5m	₦48.5m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	819	274	₦17.3bn	₦17.2bn	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	624	167	₦3.69bn	₦3.67bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	609	88	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	546	169	₦973m	₦973m	47%	2.4 yr
School	517	155	₦678m	₦678m	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial	476	341	₦6.76bn	₦6.75bn	37%	2.9 yr
Worship Center	454	159	₦247m	₦247m	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	53,315	13,718	₦74.9bn	₦71bn
Industrial	2,396	945	₦28.2bn	₦27.5bn
Retail	304	108	₦612m	₦569m
Farmland	19	6	₦215m	₦194m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	50,536	13,356	₦64.5bn	₦60bn	29%	3.6 yr
SME High	3,698	889	₦19.1bn	₦18.9bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,800	532	₦20.4bn	₦20.3bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	28,182	7,730	₦74bn	₦71.1bn
3.0	12,421	3,057	₦9.81bn	₦8.62bn
2.0	10,536	2,598	₦1.9bn	₦1.5bn
5.0	1,809	465	₦6.56bn	₦6.56bn
1.0	1,770	450	₦73.3m	₦73.3m
0.0	744	244	₦20.6m	₦20.6m
6.0	572	233	₦11.6bn	₦11.4bn