Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Shomolu, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Shomolu has 34,750 buildings with a viable rooftop and 916 MWp of roof capacity. 22% run a generator, and together they spend ₦38.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

34,750

Usable roof area

4.07 km²

916 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦38.2bn/yr

11.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.6 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Shomolu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦38.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦36.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.33tn

NPV₦289bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.6 yr

Unlocked energy78.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity227 MWp

Capex₦219bn

Year-one energy value₦108bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.03tn

NPV₦748bn

Median IRR63%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Shomolu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 227 MWp
Capital cost: ₦219bn
Year 1 savings: ₦108bn/yr
NPV: ₦748bn
Median IRR: 63%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Shomolu pays back quickly

Of the 34,750 buildings in Shomolu with a modelled payback, 96.6% pay back inside five years and 25.9% inside three.

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How much of Shomolu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Shomolu consume 141 GWh/yr but want 219 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Shomolu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Shomolu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 34,750 buildings with a modelled result out of 34,750 in Shomolu. 34,532 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,010 (26%)

Under 5 years33,575 (97%)

Under 7 years34,533 (99%)

Under 10 years34,725 (100%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,709 (100%)

Above 15%34,532 (99%)

Above 20%33,935 (98%)

Above 25%32,432 (93%)

CO₂ avoided

102 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

78.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

299k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Shomolu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Shomolu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	21,901	2,322	₦24.8bn	₦23.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
B	12,849	5,256	₦13.3bn	₦13.1bn	29%	3.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	28,455	6,532	₦22.4bn	₦21.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	3,255	482	₦10.3bn	₦10.1bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	912	82	₦284m	₦284m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	834	175	₦2.63bn	₦2.59bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	773	178	₦489m	₦489m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	216	52	₦1.34bn	₦1.28bn	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	141	28	₦351m	₦351m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	74	19	₦66.8m	₦66.8m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	57	23	₦316m	₦316m	41%	2.6 yr
Automotive	20	4	₦17.4m	₦17.4m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	13	3	₦19.8m	₦19.8m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	10,115	2,146	₦10.5bn	₦10.1bn	29%	3.6 yr
Under 30m2	7,501	1,653	₦654m	₦539m	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	6,410	1,411	₦21.8bn	₦21.4bn	29%	3.6 yr
50 100m2	6,290	1,416	₦2.18bn	₦1.66bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	4,346	934	₦738m	₦611m	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	88	18	₦2.38bn	₦2.32bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	34,169	7,455	₦36.2bn	₦35.6bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unclassified	581	123	₦1.99bn	₦973m	29%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	23,738	4,089	₦16.3bn	₦15.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	1,826	502	₦501m	₦371m	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	1,426	1,331	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial	955	182	₦2.79bn	₦2.79bn	37%	2.9 yr
Residential	950	333	₦3.75bn	₦3.2bn	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	894	3	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	37%	2.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	885	81	₦140m	₦140m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	656	139	₦2.88bn	₦2.88bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	378	87	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn	33%	3.4 yr
Worship Center	367	80	₦165m	₦165m	35%	3.1 yr
Unknown	326	72	₦996m	₦996m	31%	3.4 yr
Place Of Worship	301	70	₦131m	₦131m	35%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	34,374	7,505	₦36.9bn	₦35.6bn
Commercial	291	37	₦1.02bn	₦778m
Industrial	62	36	₦200m	₦200m
Retail	23	0	₦35.2m	₦35.2m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	31,989	7,176	₦29.1bn	₦27.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
SME High	1,908	209	₦6.38bn	₦6.36bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	853	193	₦2.71bn	₦2.69bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	17,372	3,981	₦26.2bn	₦25.3bn
3.0	8,121	1,717	₦4.72bn	₦4.34bn
2.0	6,640	1,390	₦1.18bn	₦945m
1.0	1,138	291	₦66.6m	₦62.5m
5.0	897	97	₦2.43bn	₦2.43bn
6.0	447	75	₦3.55bn	₦3.55bn
0.0	135	27	₦3.77m	₦3.77m