Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Agege, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Agege has 44,625 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.16 GWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦36.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

44,625

Usable roof area

5.15 km²

1.16 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦36.7bn/yr

14.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Agege

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦36.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦36.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.27tn

NPV₦292bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy74.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity219 MWp

Capex₦211bn

Year-one energy value₦122bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.72tn

NPV₦891bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Agege's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 219 MWp
Capital cost: ₦211bn
Year 1 savings: ₦122bn/yr
NPV: ₦891bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Agege pays back quickly

Of the 44,592 buildings in Agege with a modelled payback, 89.0% pay back inside five years and 27.6% inside three.

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How much of Agege's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Agege consume 124 GWh/yr but want 199 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Agege

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Agege actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 44,592 buildings with a modelled result out of 44,625 in Agege. 42,824 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,298 (28%)

Under 5 years39,668 (89%)

Under 7 years42,836 (96%)

Under 10 years44,011 (99%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%43,872 (98%)

Above 15%42,824 (96%)

Above 20%40,796 (91%)

Above 25%37,111 (83%)

CO₂ avoided

97.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.01 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

74.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

219k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Agege.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Agege

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	28,007	6,876	₦19.8bn	₦19.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
B	5,555	2,657	₦9.24bn	₦9.12bn	33%	3.4 yr
D	5,388	2,189	₦5.03bn	₦5.03bn	29%	3.6 yr
E	4,886	717	₦1.72bn	₦1.7bn	27%	3.9 yr
A	789	6	₦923m	₦842m	29%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	39,424	10,670	₦21bn	₦20.9bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	2,383	769	₦8.56bn	₦8.41bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,212	284	₦255m	₦255m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	835	355	₦5.54bn	₦5.48bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	478	227	₦307m	₦307m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	102	43	₦659m	₦560m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	68	33	₦192m	₦192m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	44	26	₦156m	₦155m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	29	14	₦29.1m	₦29.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	27	15	₦27m	₦27m	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	23	9	₦17.6m	₦17.6m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	12,091	3,242	₦8.38bn	₦8.37bn	29%	3.6 yr
Under 30m2	11,103	3,765	₦617m	₦615m	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	7,719	2,699	₦19.4bn	₦19.2bn	29%	3.6 yr
50 100m2	7,554	920	₦950m	₦950m	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	5,992	1,771	₦604m	₦604m	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	166	48	₦6.75bn	₦6.53bn	33%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	43,854	12,205	₦34bn	₦33.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	771	240	₦2.71bn	₦2.62bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	24,629	9,756	₦19.3bn	₦19.2bn	29%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	9,967	543	₦649m	₦649m	29%	3.9 yr
Apartment	2,214	77	₦240m	₦240m	29%	3.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,193	269	₦155m	₦155m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	828	177	₦2.27bn	₦2.24bn	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	776	11	₦82.4m	₦82.4m	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	757	66	₦53.3m	₦53.3m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	626	63	₦622m	₦622m	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial	544	221	₦1.57bn	₦1.57bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	486	183	₦4.24bn	₦4.24bn	33%	3.4 yr
Shed	455	154	₦15.8m	₦15.8m	27%	3.9 yr
Educational Facility	322	117	₦563m	₦563m	47%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	43,953	12,227	₦36.1bn	₦35.7bn
Industrial	590	218	₦627m	₦621m
Retail	82	0	₦14.1m	₦14.1m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	42,490	11,752	₦26.3bn	₦26.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
SME High	1,276	322	₦4.76bn	₦4.66bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	859	371	₦5.63bn	₦5.57bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	16,260	5,690	₦25bn	₦24.8bn
3.0	8,173	2,859	₦3.26bn	₦3.26bn
2.0	7,746	2,709	₦651m	₦650m
6.0	5,731	319	₦5.71bn	₦5.55bn
5.0	5,021	258	₦2bn	₦1.96bn
1.0	1,466	548	₦82.4m	₦82.4m
0.0	228	62	₦6.25m	₦6.25m