Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Lagos Mainland, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Lagos Mainland has 48,397 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.11 GWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦79.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

48,397

Usable roof area

4.94 km²

1.11 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦79.3bn/yr

42.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.9 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Lagos Mainland

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦79.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦76.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦4.38tn

NPV₦590bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.9 yr

Unlocked energy101 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity330 MWp

Capex₦316bn

Year-one energy value₦159bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.37tn

NPV₦1.11tn

Median IRR53%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Lagos Mainland's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 330 MWp
Capital cost: ₦316bn
Year 1 savings: ₦159bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.11tn
Median IRR: 53%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Lagos Mainland pays back quickly

Of the 47,215 buildings in Lagos Mainland with a modelled payback, 79.2% pay back inside five years and 24.8% inside three.

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How much of Lagos Mainland's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Lagos Mainland consume 237 GWh/yr but want 339 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Lagos Mainland

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Lagos Mainland actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 47,215 buildings with a modelled result out of 48,397 in Lagos Mainland. 39,907 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,706 (25%)

Under 5 years37,415 (79%)

Under 7 years39,915 (85%)

Under 10 years43,354 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,845 (89%)

Above 15%39,907 (82%)

Above 20%37,976 (78%)

Above 25%35,976 (74%)

CO₂ avoided

175 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

21.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

101 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

336k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Lagos Mainland.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Lagos Mainland

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	29,573	6,041	₦42.6bn	₦41.3bn	29%	3.6 yr
B	17,977	5,097	₦36.7bn	₦35.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
C	845	0	₦6.19m	₦6.19m	13%	8.4 yr
D	2	0	₦2.2k	₦2.2k	-1%	20.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	39,158	8,672	₦42.7bn	₦41.4bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	4,082	1,133	₦20.1bn	₦19.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,399	459	₦830m	₦827m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	1,295	435	₦10.3bn	₦9.86bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	753	217	₦779m	₦758m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	320	106	₦3.03bn	₦2.66bn	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	132	40	₦479m	₦468m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	99	25	₦138m	₦138m	37%	2.9 yr
Industrial	87	23	₦883m	₦806m	39%	2.6 yr
Automotive	45	21	₦106m	₦106m	33%	3.4 yr
Filling Station	27	7	₦28.6m	₦28.6m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	13,560	2,406	₦915m	₦894m	25%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	10,914	3,205	₦16.2bn	₦16bn	29%	3.6 yr
50 100m2	9,175	1,986	₦2.98bn	₦2.89bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	8,345	1,436	₦1.04bn	₦1.01bn	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	6,092	1,966	₦37.8bn	₦36.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	311	139	₦20.4bn	₦19.4bn	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	47,115	10,659	₦72bn	₦70.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	1,282	479	₦7.33bn	₦6.66bn	29%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	30,097	6,756	₦33.4bn	₦32.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	3,325	907	₦1.06bn	₦1bn	29%	3.9 yr
Shed	3,159	291	₦49.2m	₦49.2m	13%	7.9 yr
Residential	2,575	718	₦8.15bn	₦7.72bn	29%	3.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,242	408	₦383m	₦383m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,648	385	₦6.58bn	₦6.47bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	912	276	₦4.39bn	₦4.38bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	658	217	₦7.73bn	₦7.49bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	495	150	₦5.18bn	₦5.02bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	424	152	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	47%	2.4 yr
School	402	142	₦573m	₦573m	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	386	124	₦1.03bn	₦1.02bn	37%	2.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	46,807	10,393	₦67.2bn	₦65.2bn
Industrial	830	503	₦8.49bn	₦8.01bn
Retail	396	182	₦3.23bn	₦3.19bn
Commercial	324	60	₦366m	₦364m
Farmland	40	0	₦16.6m	₦16.6m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	44,371	9,986	₦54.2bn	₦52.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
SME High	2,709	706	₦14.2bn	₦13.7bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	1,317	446	₦10.9bn	₦10.5bn	45%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	18,504	5,511	₦53.4bn	₦52bn
2.0	12,712	2,133	₦1.64bn	₦1.62bn
3.0	10,575	2,402	₦10.3bn	₦9.75bn
1.0	2,602	507	₦162m	₦159m
0.0	2,349	167	₦29.3m	₦29.3m
5.0	1,198	292	₦4.04bn	₦4.03bn
6.0	457	126	₦9.68bn	₦9.19bn