Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Apapa, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Apapa has 35,550 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.07 GWp of roof capacity. 29% run a generator, and together they spend ₦91.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

35,550

Usable roof area

4.75 km²

1.07 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦91.9bn/yr

48.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

3.6 yr

Median IRR 29% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Apapa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦91.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦89.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦5tn

NPV₦669bn

Median IRR29%

Median payback3.6 yr

Unlocked energy112 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity388 MWp

Capex₦361bn

Year-one energy value₦162bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.41tn

NPV₦1.07tn

Median IRR47%

Median payback2.4 yr

Three ways to size Apapa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 388 MWp
Capital cost: ₦361bn
Year 1 savings: ₦162bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.07tn
Median IRR: 47%
Median payback: 2.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Apapa pays back quickly

Of the 35,495 buildings in Apapa with a modelled payback, 90.1% pay back inside five years and 26.5% inside three.

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How much of Apapa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Apapa consume 293 GWh/yr but want 406 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Apapa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Apapa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 35,495 buildings with a modelled result out of 35,550 in Apapa. 34,251 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,422 (27%)

Under 5 years31,992 (90%)

Under 7 years34,255 (97%)

Under 10 years35,044 (99%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%34,961 (98%)

Above 15%34,251 (96%)

Above 20%32,781 (92%)

Above 25%29,813 (84%)

CO₂ avoided

202 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

21.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

112 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

235k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Apapa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Apapa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	23,462	5,743	₦76.1bn	₦74.1bn	29%	3.9 yr
B	9,402	3,087	₦7.09bn	₦7.05bn	29%	3.6 yr
D	2,385	1,577	₦6.94bn	₦6.63bn	41%	2.6 yr
C	191	55	₦1.56bn	₦1.15bn	27%	3.9 yr
E	110	12	₦167m	₦137m	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	28,511	8,269	₦35.1bn	₦33.3bn	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	3,452	1,085	₦27.2bn	₦26.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	2,123	640	₦657m	₦657m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	765	276	₦22.5bn	₦22.2bn	45%	2.4 yr
Worship	283	104	₦310m	₦310m	35%	2.9 yr
Industrial	185	50	₦4.55bn	₦4.51bn	39%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	125	23	₦996m	₦888m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	46	15	₦497m	₦425m	37%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	30	7	₦47m	₦46.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	17	2	₦13.4m	₦13.4m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	13	3	₦42.1m	₦42.1m	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	8,481	2,832	₦14.7bn	₦14.1bn	29%	3.6 yr
Under 30m2	8,207	2,200	₦565m	₦561m	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	7,522	2,163	₦3.26bn	₦3.04bn	29%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	5,959	1,563	₦816m	₦805m	29%	3.9 yr
250 1000m2	4,794	1,513	₦30.5bn	₦29.4bn	29%	3.6 yr
Over 1000m2	587	203	₦42.1bn	₦41.1bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	31,644	9,502	₦73.3bn	₦71.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
Unclassified	2,953	737	₦16.4bn	₦15.5bn	29%	3.6 yr
Urban	943	235	₦2.14bn	₦2.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	10	0	₦32.9m	₦32.9m	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	14,872	3,453	₦17.2bn	₦16.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
Shed	5,166	1,764	₦228m	₦228m	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	3,291	1,795	₦2.95bn	₦2.88bn	33%	3.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,804	1	₦50.3m	₦50.3m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	2,377	1,256	₦14.7bn	₦13.5bn	31%	3.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,106	620	₦459m	₦459m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,369	403	₦9.24bn	₦9.14bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,240	439	₦13.1bn	₦12.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	540	198	₦22bn	₦21.9bn	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	310	66	₦2.05bn	₦2.03bn	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	201	81	₦446m	₦446m	47%	2.4 yr
School	200	76	₦291m	₦291m	47%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	28,003	7,794	₦46.9bn	₦44.8bn
Industrial	7,055	2,608	₦44.4bn	₦43.6bn
Retail	439	19	₦217m	₦217m
Commercial	53	53	₦454m	₦397m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	31,851	9,255	₦41.4bn	₦39.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
SME High	2,777	897	₦23.5bn	₦22.9bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	922	322	₦27bn	₦26.7bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	13,058	3,334	₦43bn	₦42.3bn
3.0	7,935	2,622	₦21.1bn	₦19.8bn
2.0	6,253	1,722	₦2.1bn	₦2.04bn
0.0	3,992	1,374	₦167m	₦167m
1.0	2,311	679	₦243m	₦243m
5.0	1,325	457	₦5.02bn	₦4.91bn
6.0	676	286	₦20.2bn	₦19.6bn