Lagos State

Rooftop solar in Mushin, Lagos: what the roofs are worth

Mushin has 48,713 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.62 GWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦107bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

48,713

Usable roof area

7.2 km²

1.62 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦107bn/yr

34.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mushin

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦107bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦102bn

Lifetime cash saved₦6.22tn

NPV₦719bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy204 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity687 MWp

Capex₦638bn

Year-one energy value₦256bn

Lifetime energy value₦11.7tn

NPV₦1.62tn

Median IRR41%

Median payback2.6 yr

Three ways to size Mushin's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 687 MWp
Capital cost: ₦638bn
Year 1 savings: ₦256bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.62tn
Median IRR: 41%
Median payback: 2.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mushin pays back quickly

Of the 48,713 buildings in Mushin with a modelled payback, 96.2% pay back inside five years and 6.3% inside three.

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How much of Mushin's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mushin consume 408 GWh/yr but want 612 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mushin

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mushin actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 48,713 buildings with a modelled result out of 48,713 in Mushin. 48,555 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,072 (6%)

Under 5 years46,864 (96%)

Under 7 years48,550 (100%)

Under 10 years48,706 (100%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%48,698 (100%)

Above 15%48,555 (100%)

Above 20%47,680 (98%)

Above 25%26,797 (55%)

CO₂ avoided

277 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

204 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

578k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mushin.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Mushin

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	41,347	5,559	₦98.5bn	₦94bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	7,366	1,565	₦8.12bn	₦8.04bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	40,078	5,176	₦44.1bn	₦41bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	4,066	989	₦20.3bn	₦19.8bn	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	1,542	335	₦35.4bn	₦34.5bn	39%	2.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1,093	314	₦486m	₦486m	33%	3.4 yr
Worship	1,069	165	₦650m	₦650m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	287	42	₦1.47bn	₦1.42bn	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	180	31	₦811m	₦757m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	153	34	₦3.12bn	₦3.12bn	37%	2.9 yr
Automotive	124	8	₦180m	₦180m	31%	3.6 yr
Productive Use	83	20	₦109m	₦109m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	38	10	₦46.9m	₦46.9m	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	13,932	1,915	₦16.3bn	₦15bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,579	1,629	₦1.02bn	₦813m	25%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	9,365	1,432	₦37.2bn	₦35.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	8,300	1,156	₦2.52bn	₦2.29bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	5,976	843	₦930m	₦836m	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	561	149	₦48.6bn	₦47.3bn	31%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	47,744	6,931	₦94.7bn	₦92.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	969	193	₦11.9bn	₦9.44bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	38,617	4,763	₦43.8bn	₦40.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	1,281	320	₦47.6m	₦47.6m	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial	1,154	216	₦4.1bn	₦4.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,028	304	₦247m	₦247m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	989	349	₦6.28bn	₦6.21bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	832	178	₦31.3bn	₦30.7bn	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	808	198	₦4.25bn	₦4.17bn	35%	3.1 yr
Worship Center	500	87	₦213m	₦213m	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	432	94	₦3.86bn	₦3.61bn	29%	3.6 yr
Educational Facility	418	74	₦780m	₦780m	41%	2.6 yr
Place Of Worship	392	58	₦143m	₦143m	33%	3.4 yr
School	387	72	₦502m	₦502m	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	46,149	6,487	₦79.7bn	₦76.8bn
Industrial	1,472	442	₦22.7bn	₦21.6bn
Commercial	549	193	₦2.75bn	₦2.07bn
Retail	543	2	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	44,636	6,112	₦55.9bn	₦52.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,409	647	₦12.3bn	₦12.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,668	365	₦38.4bn	₦37.5bn	39%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	25,225	3,439	₦85.4bn	₦82.2bn
3.0	10,836	1,426	₦5.63bn	₦5.38bn
2.0	8,967	1,404	₦2.12bn	₦1.2bn
1.0	2,039	387	₦108m	₦92.9m
5.0	966	265	₦4.86bn	₦4.85bn
0.0	398	124	₦13.3m	₦13.3m
6.0	282	79	₦8.49bn	₦8.25bn