Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Kogi State: buildings, spend and payback

1,226,705 buildings in Kogi State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦621bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 20% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

1,226,705

Usable roof area

87.7 km²

19.6 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦621bn/yr

545 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

5.1 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kogi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦621bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦574bn

Lifetime cash saved₦30.3tn

NPV₦4.64tn

Median IRR21%

Median payback5.1 yr

Unlocked energy510 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity2.26 GWp

Capex₦2.25tn

Year-one energy value₦1.86tn

Lifetime energy value₦87.5tn

NPV₦14.6tn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kogi State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 2.26 GWp
Capital cost: ₦2.25tn
Year 1 savings: ₦1.86tn/yr
NPV: ₦14.6tn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kogi State pays back quickly

Of the 1,187,455 buildings in Kogi State with a modelled payback, 48.5% pay back inside five years and 19.5% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

48.5%

Payback under 3 years

19.5%

IRR above 20%

50.5%

Under 3 years · 19%3 – 5 years · 29%5 – 7 years · 13%7 – 10 years · 10%Over 10 years · 29%

Coverage: 97% of buildings in Kogi State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Kogi State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kogi State consume 1.04 TWh/yr but want 1.55 TWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 67%Suppressed · 33%

Energy wanted

1.55 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

1.04 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

510 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Kogi State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 1,187,455 buildings with a modelled result out of 1,226,705 in Kogi State. 733,576 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years231,399 (19%)

Under 5 years576,102 (49%)

Under 7 years732,922 (62%)

Under 10 years846,119 (71%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%822,960 (67%)

Above 15%733,576 (60%)

Above 20%619,679 (51%)

Above 25%497,889 (41%)

Electricity billing bands in Kogi State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kogi State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	548,047	94,333	₦242bn	₦220bn	13%	7.1 yr
D	357,908	73,027	₦190bn	₦175bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	164,021	38,853	₦111bn	₦102bn	27%	4.1 yr
B	114,365	32,466	₦60.2bn	₦59.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	42,364	4,467	₦18.1bn	₦17.2bn	23%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	1,165,030	210,989	₦436bn	₦391bn	19%	5.4 yr
Commercial General	30,714	15,425	₦79.2bn	₦78.6bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	20,835	9,028	₦2.4bn	₦2.4bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	7,158	5,595	₦100bn	₦98.3bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	2,022	1,448	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	55%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	406	262	₦1.33bn	₦1.32bn	55%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	244	226	₦127m	₦127m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	227	150	₦506m	₦506m	49%	2.1 yr
Filling Station	44	18	₦56.8m	₦56.8m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	22	5	₦24.3m	₦24.2m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	3	0	₦3.34m	₦3.34m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	370,957	50,981	₦6.52bn	₦6.16bn	5%	16.1 yr
100 250m2	325,299	86,851	₦251bn	₦228bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	283,486	51,983	₦50.8bn	₦45.1bn	21%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	188,364	30,364	₦10.5bn	₦8.67bn	9%	9.4 yr
250 1000m2	57,088	22,158	₦208bn	₦194bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	1,511	809	₦94.3bn	₦92bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	356,149	79,551	₦163bn	₦155bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	306,673	41,770	₦155bn	₦128bn	7%	14.1 yr
Urban	242,619	45,298	₦129bn	₦124bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	175,974	42,877	₦109bn	₦108bn	23%	4.9 yr
Rural	145,290	33,650	₦65.7bn	₦58.8bn	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	396,684	50,536	₦5.54bn	₦5.54bn	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	299,192	63,818	₦63.7bn	₦55.6bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	215,998	70,183	₦348bn	₦312bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	159,196	17,567	₦10.5bn	₦10.3bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Informal	69,742	5,550	₦5.55bn	₦5.54bn	19%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	21,021	9,210	₦2.49bn	₦2.49bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	17,039	2,339	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	14,557	7,756	₦42.3bn	₦41.9bn	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	11,784	4,640	₦23.4bn	₦23.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	7,179	996	₦568m	₦568m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	4,437	3,462	₦85.1bn	₦83.8bn	53%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	2,122	1,732	₦6.74bn	₦6.74bn	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	1,222,860	241,524	₦577bn	₦531bn
Industrial	3,486	1,605	₦44.2bn	₦43bn
Retail	255	13	₦44.3m	₦44.3m
Commercial	69	2	₦12.1m	₦12.1m
Farmland	19	0	₦2.83m	₦2.83m
Farmyard	16	2	₦910k	₦910k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	1,192,965	225,060	₦455bn	₦410bn	19%	5.4 yr
SME High	26,591	12,517	₦66.4bn	₦65.9bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	7,149	5,569	₦100bn	₦98.1bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	393,970	49,907	₦5.38bn	₦5.38bn
3.0	337,005	100,393	₦420bn	₦388bn
2.0	211,438	45,401	₦72.3bn	₦62bn
4.0	202,704	26,357	₦74.7bn	₦74.3bn
1.0	69,356	16,881	₦13.8bn	₦10.5bn
5.0	10,383	3,473	₦20.7bn	₦20.4bn
6.0	1,849	734	₦13.9bn	₦13.6bn