Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Lokoja, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Lokoja has 114,081 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.86 GWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦41bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

114,081

Usable roof area

8.32 km²

1.86 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦41bn/yr

30.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.6 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Lokoja

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦41bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦38.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.13tn

NPV₦309bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback5.6 yr

Unlocked energy46 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity203 MWp

Capex₦191bn

Year-one energy value₦125bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.84tn

NPV₦937bn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Lokoja's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 203 MWp
Capital cost: ₦191bn
Year 1 savings: ₦125bn/yr
NPV: ₦937bn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Lokoja pays back quickly

Of the 106,867 buildings in Lokoja with a modelled payback, 45.4% pay back inside five years and 15.0% inside three.

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How much of Lokoja's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Lokoja consume 91 GWh/yr but want 137 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Lokoja

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Lokoja actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 106,867 buildings with a modelled result out of 114,081 in Lokoja. 63,049 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,054 (15%)

Under 5 years48,497 (45%)

Under 7 years63,033 (59%)

Under 10 years73,906 (69%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%72,041 (63%)

Above 15%63,049 (55%)

Above 20%52,321 (46%)

Above 25%41,653 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

81.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

46 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

211k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Lokoja.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Lokoja

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	33,283	5,591	₦9.75bn	₦9.63bn	21%	4.6 yr
A	28,411	2,671	₦10.2bn	₦10.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	27,032	4,426	₦11.2bn	₦10.5bn	5%	15.9 yr
D	15,664	2,326	₦6.54bn	₦5.31bn	7%	14.6 yr
C	9,691	2,247	₦3.27bn	₦3.27bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	103,923	15,504	₦22.8bn	₦20.7bn	15%	6.1 yr
Commercial General	5,139	743	₦9.06bn	₦9.02bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	3,989	548	₦292m	₦292m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	606	257	₦8.32bn	₦8.22bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	162	64	₦60m	₦60m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	129	53	₦342m	₦340m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	83	78	₦56.8m	₦56.8m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	24	11	₦35.6m	₦35.6m	37%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	13	2	₦17.1m	₦17.1m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	10	1	₦14.3m	₦14.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	3	0	₦3.34m	₦3.34m	31%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	40,239	3,813	₦515m	₦515m	5%	16.9 yr
100 250m2	27,493	5,367	₦14.3bn	₦13.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	23,225	3,965	₦3.98bn	₦3.58bn	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	16,461	2,521	₦749m	₦736m	13%	7.1 yr
250 1000m2	6,302	1,483	₦12.2bn	₦11.7bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	361	112	₦9.13bn	₦9.03bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	53,259	7,584	₦13.5bn	₦13.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	36,677	5,392	₦19bn	₦16.9bn	5%	15.6 yr
Rural	10,228	2,190	₦1.68bn	₦1.66bn	11%	8.9 yr
Urban	7,642	1,764	₦4.47bn	₦4.47bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	6,275	331	₦2.29bn	₦2.29bn	19%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	35,930	3,495	₦377m	₦377m	5%	16.6 yr
Residential Informal	26,885	1,856	₦917m	₦917m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	17,554	5,148	₦4.83bn	₦4.44bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	11,543	1,012	₦334m	₦304m	15%	5.6 yr
Residential	10,569	3,757	₦16.3bn	₦14.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,042	604	₦327m	₦327m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	2,332	180	₦4.2bn	₦4.17bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,278	440	₦3.63bn	₦3.62bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	907	184	₦39m	₦39m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	535	52	₦16.6m	₦16.6m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	334	135	₦7.34bn	₦7.25bn	33%	3.4 yr
Unknown	220	30	₦266m	₦266m	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	112,835	17,039	₦38.2bn	₦36bn
Industrial	1,223	218	₦2.72bn	₦2.72bn
Farmyard	16	2	₦910k	₦910k
Commercial	7	2	₦6.81m	₦6.81m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	108,792	16,382	₦24.7bn	₦22.7bn	17%	5.9 yr
SME High	4,712	650	₦8.01bn	₦7.98bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	577	229	₦8.22bn	₦8.13bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	35,493	3,395	₦369m	₦369m
3.0	26,565	6,691	₦23.8bn	₦22.4bn
2.0	23,322	3,884	₦4.48bn	₦3.79bn
4.0	19,329	1,859	₦7.04bn	₦7.01bn
1.0	7,024	1,323	₦532m	₦518m
5.0	1,998	85	₦2.94bn	₦2.91bn
6.0	350	24	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn