Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Ajaokuta, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Ajaokuta has 73,177 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.53 GWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦102bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

73,177

Usable roof area

6.8 km²

1.53 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦102bn/yr

95.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ajaokuta

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦102bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦99.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦5.34tn

NPV₦795bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy88.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity338 MWp

Capex₦313bn

Year-one energy value₦214bn

Lifetime energy value₦10tn

NPV₦1.62tn

Median IRR85%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ajaokuta's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 338 MWp
Capital cost: ₦313bn
Year 1 savings: ₦214bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.62tn
Median IRR: 85%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ajaokuta pays back quickly

Of the 70,551 buildings in Ajaokuta with a modelled payback, 59.5% pay back inside five years and 33.3% inside three.

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How much of Ajaokuta's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ajaokuta consume 199 GWh/yr but want 288 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ajaokuta

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ajaokuta actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 70,551 buildings with a modelled result out of 73,177 in Ajaokuta. 48,656 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years23,459 (33%)

Under 5 years41,962 (59%)

Under 7 years48,635 (69%)

Under 10 years51,987 (74%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%51,518 (70%)

Above 15%48,656 (66%)

Above 20%43,865 (60%)

Above 25%38,483 (53%)

CO₂ avoided

184 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

41.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

88.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

270k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ajaokuta.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ajaokuta

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	20,957	10,123	₦27.2bn	₦27bn	29%	3.6 yr
C	17,039	9,621	₦27.2bn	₦27.1bn	51%	2.1 yr
E	14,917	1,334	₦13.6bn	₦12.2bn	3%	18.6 yr
D	12,593	3,027	₦28.6bn	₦27.9bn	7%	9.6 yr
A	7,671	1,151	₦5.88bn	₦5.14bn	23%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	69,108	22,472	₦47.4bn	₦44.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	2,020	1,416	₦9.84bn	₦9.81bn	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,500	941	₦330m	₦330m	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	367	297	₦44.1bn	₦44bn	51%	2.1 yr
Worship	76	58	₦164m	₦164m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial	70	49	₦299m	₦299m	53%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	19	11	₦161m	₦158m	43%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	9	8	₦24.7m	₦24.7m	49%	2.1 yr
Mall Retail	6	3	₦6.36m	₦6.21m	35%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	2	1	₦572k	₦572k	33%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	27,610	4,989	₦722m	₦662m	5%	17.4 yr
100 250m2	20,510	9,641	₦22.6bn	₦21.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	11,106	4,631	₦3.78bn	₦3.23bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	8,526	2,782	₦812m	₦696m	19%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,118	3,012	₦27.7bn	₦26.3bn	47%	2.4 yr
Over 1000m2	307	201	₦46.8bn	₦46.7bn	43%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	32,339	14,084	₦24.5bn	₦24.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	22,606	2,486	₦22.3bn	₦19.9bn	3%	18.1 yr
Dense Urban	9,572	4,695	₦32.3bn	₦32bn	29%	3.6 yr
Urban	5,231	2,172	₦19.7bn	₦19.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	3,429	1,819	₦3.69bn	₦3.61bn	41%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	26,526	4,436	₦555m	₦555m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	13,444	5,846	₦5.45bn	₦4.17bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	12,929	7,738	₦38.3bn	₦36.9bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	12,102	3,345	₦1.59bn	₦1.5bn	25%	4.1 yr
Apartment	1,716	433	₦217m	₦217m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,502	942	₦331m	₦331m	41%	2.6 yr
Residential Informal	1,331	364	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,107	695	₦4.9bn	₦4.89bn	43%	2.4 yr
Duplex	1,060	310	₦146m	₦146m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	769	606	₦4.22bn	₦4.2bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	267	212	₦42.7bn	₦42.7bn	47%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	68	58	₦418m	₦418m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	71,038	24,155	₦63.2bn	₦61.3bn
Industrial	1,874	1,088	₦39.1bn	₦38bn
Retail	255	13	₦44.3m	₦44.3m
Farmland	8	0	₦15.8k	₦15.8k
Commercial	2	0	₦4.29m	₦4.29m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	70,897	23,630	₦48.9bn	₦46.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	1,900	1,319	₦9.31bn	₦9.28bn	45%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	380	307	₦44.1bn	₦44bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	26,391	4,368	₦547m	₦547m
3.0	20,603	11,847	₦63bn	₦60.8bn
4.0	16,211	4,403	₦30.6bn	₦30.5bn
2.0	7,202	3,245	₦3.25bn	₦2.82bn
1.0	2,055	962	₦697m	₦455m
5.0	583	368	₦2.84bn	₦2.81bn
6.0	132	63	₦1.41bn	₦1.41bn