Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Dekina, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Dekina has 162,310 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.4 GWp of roof capacity. 10% run a generator, and together they spend ₦31bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

162,310

Usable roof area

10.7 km²

2.4 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦31bn/yr

29.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.6 yr

Median IRR 15% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Dekina

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦31bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦30.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.57tn

NPV₦241bn

Median IRR15%

Median payback6.6 yr

Unlocked energy27.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity162 MWp

Capex₦167bn

Year-one energy value₦146bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.93tn

NPV₦1.17tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Dekina's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 162 MWp
Capital cost: ₦167bn
Year 1 savings: ₦146bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.17tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Dekina pays back quickly

Of the 156,074 buildings in Dekina with a modelled payback, 33.7% pay back inside five years and 9.8% inside three.

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How much of Dekina's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Dekina consume 51.2 GWh/yr but want 79 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Dekina

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Dekina actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 156,074 buildings with a modelled result out of 162,310 in Dekina. 81,185 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,343 (10%)

Under 5 years52,538 (34%)

Under 7 years81,021 (52%)

Under 10 years104,662 (67%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%100,208 (62%)

Above 15%81,185 (50%)

Above 20%59,500 (37%)

Above 25%41,110 (25%)

CO₂ avoided

56.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

27.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

401k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Dekina.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Dekina

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	92,283	8,779	₦19.2bn	₦18.7bn	13%	7.4 yr
D	59,806	6,059	₦10.1bn	₦9.82bn	17%	6.1 yr
C	10,221	1,056	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	19%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	157,236	13,669	₦19.9bn	₦19.6bn	15%	6.9 yr
Commercial General	2,415	968	₦4.55bn	₦4.32bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,731	462	₦139m	₦139m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	668	573	₦6.3bn	₦6.15bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship	173	143	₦63.9m	₦63.9m	57%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	51	51	₦17.1m	₦17.1m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	29	27	₦45.7m	₦45.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	3	0	₦2.85m	₦2.85m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦283k	₦283k	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	2	1	₦4.25m	₦4.25m	37%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	46,375	3,530	₦2.14bn	₦2.09bn	17%	6.4 yr
Under 30m2	43,155	3,279	₦342m	₦342m	5%	15.9 yr
100 250m2	39,595	5,441	₦10.9bn	₦10.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	27,350	2,037	₦548m	₦426m	9%	12.9 yr
250 1000m2	5,700	1,535	₦10.8bn	₦10.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	135	72	₦6.25bn	₦5.92bn	51%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	45,834	5,326	₦10.2bn	₦10.1bn	15%	7.4 yr
Urban Centre	35,678	3,087	₦3.19bn	₦3.19bn	17%	5.4 yr
Unclassified	33,606	3,780	₦12.4bn	₦12.1bn	15%	6.4 yr
Rural	26,570	2,111	₦2.96bn	₦2.76bn	13%	7.9 yr
Dense Urban	20,622	1,590	₦2.24bn	₦2.2bn	13%	7.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	50,950	3,577	₦425m	₦425m	7%	14.9 yr
Residential Small	48,002	4,155	₦2.28bn	₦2.11bn	17%	6.4 yr
Residential	26,732	5,035	₦16.6bn	₦16.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	16,507	681	₦377m	₦377m	13%	6.6 yr
Residential Informal	13,653	111	₦238m	₦238m	13%	6.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,775	506	₦153m	₦153m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,282	215	₦1.04bn	₦1.04bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	781	468	₦2.62bn	₦2.39bn	41%	2.6 yr
Apartment	749	54	₦21.4m	₦21.4m	21%	4.9 yr
Duplex	643	56	₦25.1m	₦25.1m	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	380	329	₦4.47bn	₦4.41bn	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	192	170	₦520m	₦520m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	162,302	15,894	₦31bn	₦30.3bn
Farmland	8	0	₦207k	₦207k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	159,578	14,644	₦21.1bn	₦20.7bn	15%	6.9 yr
SME High	2,078	692	₦3.69bn	₦3.46bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	654	558	₦6.28bn	₦6.13bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	50,481	3,584	₦418m	₦418m
3.0	46,730	6,465	₦20.3bn	₦20bn
2.0	34,107	3,167	₦3.72bn	₦3.55bn
4.0	19,935	1,357	₦4.22bn	₦4.15bn
1.0	10,454	1,156	₦465m	₦465m
5.0	558	131	₦549m	₦549m
6.0	45	34	₦1.41bn	₦1.18bn