Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Kabba/Bunu, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Kabba/Bunu has 60,411 buildings with a viable rooftop and 965 MWp of roof capacity. 15% run a generator, and together they spend ₦18.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

60,411

Usable roof area

4.31 km²

965 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦18.2bn/yr

14.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.4 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kabba/Bunu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦18.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦980bn

NPV₦145bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.4 yr

Unlocked energy23.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity98.8 MWp

Capex₦94.4bn

Year-one energy value₦73.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.47tn

NPV₦575bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kabba/Bunu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 98.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦94.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦73.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦575bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kabba/Bunu pays back quickly

Of the 56,842 buildings in Kabba/Bunu with a modelled payback, 47.6% pay back inside five years and 15.7% inside three.

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How much of Kabba/Bunu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kabba/Bunu consume 38.8 GWh/yr but want 61.9 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kabba/Bunu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kabba/Bunu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 56,842 buildings with a modelled result out of 60,411 in Kabba/Bunu. 34,012 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,898 (16%)

Under 5 years27,057 (48%)

Under 7 years34,001 (60%)

Under 10 years37,648 (66%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%37,025 (61%)

Above 15%34,012 (56%)

Above 20%28,880 (48%)

Above 25%24,178 (40%)

CO₂ avoided

37.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.15 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

163k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kabba/Bunu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kabba/Bunu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	24,017	2,728	₦7.6bn	₦7.53bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	18,647	3,786	₦5.69bn	₦5.56bn	19%	5.4 yr
E	17,723	2,447	₦4.87bn	₦4.59bn	5%	16.4 yr
B	24	0	₦767k	₦767k	17%	5.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	56,463	7,477	₦10.3bn	₦9.86bn	17%	5.9 yr
Commercial General	2,046	781	₦5.62bn	₦5.61bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,568	500	₦132m	₦132m	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	285	181	₦2.01bn	₦1.97bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	31	20	₦91m	₦91m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	13	2	₦10.2m	₦10.2m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	4	0	₦298k	₦298k	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	1	0	₦121k	₦121k	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	24,685	2,183	₦235m	₦235m	3%	17.9 yr
100 250m2	16,873	3,302	₦6.78bn	₦6.68bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	8,714	1,575	₦942m	₦868m	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	6,923	995	₦205m	₦205m	13%	8.1 yr
250 1000m2	3,153	878	₦7.88bn	₦7.58bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	63	28	₦2.12bn	₦2.12bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	25,970	3,195	₦7.19bn	₦7.11bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	22,575	2,345	₦4.88bn	₦4.66bn	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	7,688	2,340	₦3.75bn	₦3.56bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	4,178	1,081	₦2.35bn	₦2.35bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	23,205	2,257	₦221m	₦221m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential	11,201	2,957	₦8.8bn	₦8.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	9,975	1,875	₦927m	₦854m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	6,324	117	₦155m	₦155m	17%	5.6 yr
Residential Informal	4,502	250	₦150m	₦150m	19%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,568	500	₦132m	₦132m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,422	509	₦4.19bn	₦4.19bn	37%	2.9 yr
Apartment	913	0	₦25m	₦25m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	413	171	₦806m	₦806m	37%	2.9 yr
Duplex	343	21	₦13.3m	₦13.3m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	152	103	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn	53%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	84	62	₦274m	₦274m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	60,411	8,961	₦18.2bn	₦17.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	58,279	8,099	₦11.1bn	₦10.7bn	17%	5.6 yr
SME High	1,846	681	₦5bn	₦5bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	286	181	₦2.01bn	₦1.97bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	23,195	2,260	₦221m	₦221m
3.0	15,393	3,559	₦10.4bn	₦9.96bn
4.0	10,584	670	₦2.23bn	₦2.23bn
2.0	7,923	1,641	₦1.77bn	₦1.75bn
1.0	2,012	562	₦187m	₦187m
5.0	932	187	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn
6.0	372	82	₦2.2bn	₦2.2bn