Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Ankpa, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Ankpa has 122,101 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.73 GWp of roof capacity. 13% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

122,101

Usable roof area

7.77 km²

1.73 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25.1bn/yr

21.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

6.1 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ankpa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦24.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.3tn

NPV₦199bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback6.1 yr

Unlocked energy23 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity127 MWp

Capex₦133bn

Year-one energy value₦122bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.81tn

NPV₦982bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ankpa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 127 MWp
Capital cost: ₦133bn
Year 1 savings: ₦122bn/yr
NPV: ₦982bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ankpa pays back quickly

Of the 118,070 buildings in Ankpa with a modelled payback, 39.5% pay back inside five years and 12.4% inside three.

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How much of Ankpa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ankpa consume 38.5 GWh/yr but want 61.5 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ankpa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ankpa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 118,070 buildings with a modelled result out of 122,101 in Ankpa. 65,997 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,627 (12%)

Under 5 years46,688 (40%)

Under 7 years65,929 (56%)

Under 10 years82,198 (70%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%78,514 (64%)

Above 15%65,997 (54%)

Above 20%51,968 (43%)

Above 25%37,389 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

47.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

357k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ankpa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ankpa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	68,381	6,841	₦12bn	₦11.7bn	15%	6.9 yr
D	41,604	7,963	₦12.3bn	₦12.1bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	11,430	767	₦786m	₦786m	17%	5.4 yr
B	598	1	₦18.8m	₦18.8m	13%	8.1 yr
A	88	0	₦2.14m	₦2.14m	9%	8.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	119,692	14,547	₦21.1bn	₦20.7bn	17%	6.4 yr
Commercial General	1,156	450	₦2.09bn	₦2.09bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	670	126	₦45.3m	₦45.3m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	409	334	₦1.74bn	₦1.62bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	127	83	₦57.7m	₦57.7m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	22	16	₦12.3m	₦12.3m	51%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	13	9	₦97.6m	₦94.4m	63%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	9	6	₦2m	₦2m	61%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	2	0	₦1.04m	₦1.04m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦467k	₦467k	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	36,043	3,588	₦2.5bn	₦2.43bn	19%	5.6 yr
Under 30m2	30,552	3,282	₦331m	₦331m	7%	15.4 yr
100 250m2	29,312	5,340	₦11.2bn	₦11bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	22,549	2,089	₦448m	₦448m	9%	9.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,605	1,256	₦9.84bn	₦9.67bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	40	17	₦781m	₦726m	27%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	42,260	4,216	₦8.8bn	₦8.58bn	17%	6.4 yr
Urban Centre	32,674	6,379	₦6.8bn	₦6.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	18,662	1,280	₦2.14bn	₦2.11bn	11%	7.9 yr
Rural	17,004	1,902	₦2.54bn	₦2.48bn	15%	7.1 yr
Unclassified	11,501	1,795	₦4.85bn	₦4.67bn	19%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	35,962	3,890	₦440m	₦440m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Small	34,273	3,675	₦2.78bn	₦2.71bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	24,107	2,035	₦971m	₦971m	15%	6.1 yr
Residential	19,354	3,897	₦15.6bn	₦15.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	4,115	666	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	15%	5.9 yr
Apartment	1,439	305	₦148m	₦148m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	676	130	₦46.1m	₦46.1m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	660	51	₦680m	₦680m	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	442	79	₦40.8m	₦40.8m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	269	221	₦886m	₦832m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	256	205	₦833m	₦833m	61%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	141	121	₦325m	₦325m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	122,101	15,572	₦25.1bn	₦24.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	120,751	14,967	₦21.8bn	₦21.5bn	17%	6.1 yr
SME High	922	258	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	428	347	₦1.72bn	₦1.6bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	35,501	3,779	₦408m	₦408m
3.0	33,794	5,820	₦17.6bn	₦17.2bn
4.0	26,556	2,693	₦3.09bn	₦3.09bn
2.0	20,116	2,505	₦3.06bn	₦3.01bn
1.0	5,749	726	₦412m	₦412m
5.0	347	38	₦338m	₦338m
6.0	38	11	₦187m	₦187m