Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Okene, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Okene has 41,793 buildings with a viable rooftop and 943 MWp of roof capacity. 21% run a generator, and together they spend ₦41.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

41,793

Usable roof area

4.19 km²

943 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦41.5bn/yr

28.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Okene

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦41.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦34bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.83tn

NPV₦269bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy39.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity158 MWp

Capex₦151bn

Year-one energy value₦109bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.01tn

NPV₦824bn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Okene's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 158 MWp
Capital cost: ₦151bn
Year 1 savings: ₦109bn/yr
NPV: ₦824bn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Okene pays back quickly

Of the 41,461 buildings in Okene with a modelled payback, 77.5% pay back inside five years and 18.6% inside three.

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How much of Okene's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Okene consume 89.8 GWh/yr but want 129 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Okene

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Okene actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 41,461 buildings with a modelled result out of 41,793 in Okene. 37,339 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,718 (19%)

Under 5 years32,115 (77%)

Under 7 years37,324 (90%)

Under 10 years39,569 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%39,350 (94%)

Above 15%37,339 (89%)

Above 20%33,695 (81%)

Above 25%28,626 (68%)

CO₂ avoided

72.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

39.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

377k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Okene.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Okene

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	22,478	4,365	₦30.3bn	₦22.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
B	16,853	4,094	₦8.93bn	₦8.78bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	1,696	372	₦1.65bn	₦1.63bn	29%	3.6 yr
D	416	66	₦580m	₦559m	27%	4.1 yr
E	350	6	₦86.6m	₦43.5m	3%	18.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	36,046	7,037	₦31.3bn	₦23.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	3,477	1,022	₦8.17bn	₦8.15bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,798	656	₦218m	₦218m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	346	142	₦1.72bn	₦1.6bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	88	31	₦39.8m	₦39.8m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	27	13	₦39.6m	₦39.6m	39%	2.9 yr
Filling Station	6	2	₦4.37m	₦4.37m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	4	0	₦719k	₦719k	27%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦499k	₦499k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	19,092	3,900	₦22.6bn	₦18.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,367	1,779	₦358m	₦337m	17%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	7,230	1,377	₦1.91bn	₦1.69bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	3,831	856	₦441m	₦397m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	3,244	974	₦14.9bn	₦12bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	29	17	₦1.3bn	₦1.17bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	38,404	7,805	₦35.3bn	₦28.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	2,583	759	₦4.22bn	₦3.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	806	339	₦2.01bn	₦1.94bn	27%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	12,998	818	₦1.08bn	₦1.07bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	7,506	2,712	₦26.4bn	₦19.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	5,591	2,033	₦2.99bn	₦2.61bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	4,232	530	₦492m	₦480m	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	2,930	731	₦73.9m	₦73.9m	19%	5.9 yr
Apartment	2,231	185	₦194m	₦194m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,797	656	₦217m	₦217m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	1,766	609	₦5.09bn	₦5.09bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,406	293	₦2.44bn	₦2.43bn	35%	3.1 yr
Duplex	558	28	₦40.2m	₦40.2m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	207	81	₦1.04bn	₦931m	31%	3.4 yr
Unknown	115	45	₦105m	₦105m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	41,793	8,903	₦41.5bn	₦34bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	38,255	7,852	₦32.2bn	₦24.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	3,186	908	₦7.56bn	₦7.54bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	352	143	₦1.73bn	₦1.6bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	19,593	1,656	₦4.07bn	₦3.95bn
3.0	11,883	4,202	₦29.6bn	₦22.3bn
2.0	4,354	1,359	₦1.59bn	₦1.43bn
0.0	2,539	725	₦70m	₦70m
5.0	2,024	485	₦3.63bn	₦3.62bn
1.0	1,041	353	₦99.1m	₦95.9m
6.0	359	123	₦2.47bn	₦2.47bn