Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Ofu, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Ofu has 83,552 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.13 GWp of roof capacity. 17% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

83,552

Usable roof area

5.07 km²

1.13 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26.9bn/yr

25.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.6 yr

Median IRR 19% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ofu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦26.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.38tn

NPV₦214bn

Median IRR19%

Median payback5.6 yr

Unlocked energy21.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity120 MWp

Capex₦124bn

Year-one energy value₦113bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.37tn

NPV₦908bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ofu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 120 MWp
Capital cost: ₦124bn
Year 1 savings: ₦113bn/yr
NPV: ₦908bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ofu pays back quickly

Of the 81,472 buildings in Ofu with a modelled payback, 44.7% pay back inside five years and 17.1% inside three.

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How much of Ofu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ofu consume 39.8 GWh/yr but want 61.1 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ofu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ofu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 81,472 buildings with a modelled result out of 83,552 in Ofu. 48,450 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,949 (17%)

Under 5 years36,393 (45%)

Under 7 years48,388 (59%)

Under 10 years55,895 (69%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%53,909 (65%)

Above 15%48,450 (58%)

Above 20%40,081 (48%)

Above 25%29,468 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

47.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

21.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

327k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ofu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ofu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	52,314	8,146	₦12.9bn	₦12.7bn	17%	5.9 yr
D	28,082	4,037	₦8.38bn	₦8.22bn	19%	5.4 yr
C	3,156	1,928	₦5.64bn	₦5.48bn	57%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	81,396	12,296	₦19.4bn	₦19bn	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial General	1,053	909	₦4.01bn	₦4.01bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	577	425	₦94.8m	₦94.8m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	463	425	₦3.33bn	₦3.26bn	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	42	39	₦27.1m	₦27.1m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	11	11	₦70.5m	₦70.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	6	5	₦803k	₦803k	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	4	1	₦688k	₦688k	21%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	24,730	3,583	₦2.74bn	₦2.65bn	23%	4.9 yr
Under 30m2	23,106	3,032	₦323m	₦323m	5%	16.1 yr
100 250m2	18,116	4,419	₦11.2bn	₦11bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	15,238	2,041	₦596m	₦530m	9%	9.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,317	1,007	₦9.84bn	₦9.75bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	45	29	₦2.24bn	₦2.17bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	29,225	4,920	₦9bn	₦8.95bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	20,462	4,284	₦9.66bn	₦9.63bn	21%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	17,445	2,459	₦6.1bn	₦5.67bn	11%	6.9 yr
Rural	16,420	2,448	₦2.19bn	₦2.19bn	17%	6.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	29,911	3,591	₦377m	₦377m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	29,669	4,609	₦3.44bn	₦3.21bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	14,807	3,930	₦15.4bn	₦15.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	6,425	154	₦205m	₦205m	17%	5.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	582	430	₦95.5m	₦95.5m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	524	409	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	57%	1.9 yr
Apartment	448	9	₦25.7m	₦25.7m	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	270	253	₦2.65bn	₦2.59bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	265	256	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	173	161	₦564m	₦564m	83%	1.4 yr
Duplex	136	3	₦7.13m	₦7.13m	25%	4.4 yr
School	102	95	₦197m	₦197m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	83,439	14,011	₦26.3bn	₦25.8bn
Industrial	113	100	₦674m	₦674m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	82,297	13,020	₦20.4bn	₦19.9bn	19%	5.6 yr
SME High	792	669	₦3.24bn	₦3.23bn	59%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	463	422	₦3.32bn	₦3.26bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	29,853	3,580	₦373m	₦373m
3.0	23,709	5,891	₦19.5bn	₦19.2bn
2.0	17,428	2,978	₦3.38bn	₦3.22bn
4.0	6,664	415	₦2.73bn	₦2.69bn
1.0	5,876	1,238	₦620m	₦620m
5.0	22	9	₦289m	₦289m