Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Ijumu, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Ijumu has 43,649 buildings with a viable rooftop and 713 MWp of roof capacity. 25% run a generator, and together they spend ₦26.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

43,649

Usable roof area

3.18 km²

713 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦26.3bn/yr

24.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ijumu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦26.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.34tn

NPV₦211bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy22.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity92.1 MWp

Capex₦94.1bn

Year-one energy value₦85.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.03tn

NPV₦682bn

Median IRR89%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ijumu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 92.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦94.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦85.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦682bn
Median IRR: 89%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ijumu pays back quickly

Of the 42,102 buildings in Ijumu with a modelled payback, 56.5% pay back inside five years and 25.5% inside three.

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How much of Ijumu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ijumu consume 39.6 GWh/yr but want 62.4 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ijumu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ijumu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 42,102 buildings with a modelled result out of 43,649 in Ijumu. 28,784 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,743 (26%)

Under 5 years23,795 (57%)

Under 7 years28,773 (68%)

Under 10 years31,066 (74%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%30,655 (70%)

Above 15%28,784 (66%)

Above 20%25,100 (58%)

Above 25%21,880 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

47.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

22.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

231k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ijumu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ijumu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	18,698	5,200	₦11.1bn	₦10.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	16,942	4,500	₦13.2bn	₦12.8bn	9%	9.4 yr
C	7,566	1,328	₦1.92bn	₦1.92bn	27%	4.1 yr
A	357	33	₦18.9m	₦18.9m	19%	5.6 yr
B	86	25	₦5.08m	₦5.08m	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	41,638	9,554	₦19.5bn	₦18.9bn	23%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	968	747	₦3.47bn	₦3.47bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	629	436	₦119m	₦119m	63%	1.6 yr
Anchor	348	295	₦3.13bn	₦3.03bn	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	57	49	₦52.3m	₦52.3m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	6	2	₦11.2m	₦11.2m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦7.48m	₦7.48m	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	16,510	2,628	₦291m	₦291m	5%	15.9 yr
100 250m2	12,414	4,273	₦11.7bn	₦11.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	7,159	1,855	₦1.29bn	₦1.23bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	5,003	1,121	₦307m	₦301m	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,533	1,190	₦10.8bn	₦10.7bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	30	19	₦1.93bn	₦1.85bn	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	12,299	5,200	₦10.6bn	₦10.5bn	27%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	11,884	1,225	₦5.86bn	₦5.35bn	5%	17.4 yr
Urban Centre	8,957	1,476	₦2.74bn	₦2.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	6,644	1,530	₦4.58bn	₦4.44bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	3,865	1,655	₦2.46bn	₦2.46bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	17,499	2,580	₦256m	₦256m	5%	15.6 yr
Residential	10,031	3,951	₦17bn	₦16.5bn	27%	3.9 yr
Residential Small	7,852	2,264	₦1.7bn	₦1.55bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	3,867	694	₦403m	₦391m	25%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	2,062	0	₦79.8m	₦79.8m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	629	436	₦119m	₦119m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	564	372	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	61%	1.6 yr
Institutional	210	179	₦2.37bn	₦2.29bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	207	206	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	71%	1.6 yr
Apartment	203	41	₦31.1m	₦31.1m	27%	4.1 yr
Educational Facility	130	114	₦450m	₦450m	81%	1.4 yr
Duplex	124	24	₦14.8m	₦14.8m	27%	4.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	43,649	11,086	₦26.3bn	₦25.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	42,525	10,210	₦20.4bn	₦19.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	773	578	₦2.7bn	₦2.7bn	65%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	351	298	₦3.14bn	₦3.04bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	17,449	2,551	₦248m	₦248m
3.0	13,062	4,951	₦20.3bn	₦19.7bn
2.0	6,606	1,821	₦2.99bn	₦2.77bn
4.0	4,379	890	₦2.25bn	₦2.24bn
1.0	2,108	863	₦355m	₦355m
5.0	45	10	₦198m	₦198m