Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Ibaji, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Ibaji has 33,417 buildings with a viable rooftop and 436 MWp of roof capacity. 37% run a generator, and together they spend ₦43.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,417

Usable roof area

1.95 km²

436 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦43.2bn/yr

40.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibaji

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦43.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦39.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.95tn

NPV₦318bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy19.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity89.2 MWp

Capex₦92.5bn

Year-one energy value₦88.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.12tn

NPV₦705bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ibaji's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 89.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦92.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦88.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦705bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibaji pays back quickly

Of the 32,600 buildings in Ibaji with a modelled payback, 50.4% pay back inside five years and 38.1% inside three.

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How much of Ibaji's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibaji consume 49.8 GWh/yr but want 69.4 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibaji

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibaji actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 32,600 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,417 in Ibaji. 17,784 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years12,425 (38%)

Under 5 years16,424 (50%)

Under 7 years17,773 (55%)

Under 10 years19,724 (61%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,113 (57%)

Above 15%17,784 (53%)

Above 20%16,932 (51%)

Above 25%15,498 (46%)

CO₂ avoided

65.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

215k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibaji.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ibaji

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	23,728	8,790	₦29.9bn	₦27.2bn	21%	4.9 yr
D	9,689	3,655	₦13.3bn	₦12bn	19%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	32,648	11,727	₦36.9bn	₦33.1bn	19%	5.1 yr
Anchor	363	345	₦5.19bn	₦4.88bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	153	150	₦632m	₦632m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	134	113	₦349m	₦349m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	72	69	₦154m	₦154m	63%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	44	38	₦21.1m	₦21.1m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦2.41m	₦2.2m	59%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	12,316	2,939	₦414m	₦414m	5%	16.4 yr
100 250m2	7,406	4,091	₦20.5bn	₦18.9bn	71%	1.4 yr
50 100m2	6,627	2,854	₦4.9bn	₦4.63bn	25%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	6,034	1,870	₦893m	₦825m	9%	9.9 yr
250 1000m2	976	642	₦12.4bn	₦10.6bn	73%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	58	49	₦4.11bn	₦3.78bn	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	13,580	2,228	₦9.99bn	₦7.98bn	5%	15.6 yr
Rural	7,919	3,763	₦8.66bn	₦7.95bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	6,815	3,949	₦17.1bn	₦15.9bn	69%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	5,103	2,505	₦7.52bn	₦7.36bn	27%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	16,120	3,753	₦385m	₦385m	7%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	9,779	4,326	₦6.83bn	₦6.5bn	25%	4.1 yr
Residential	6,749	3,648	₦29.7bn	₦26.3bn	71%	1.4 yr
Institutional	198	195	₦4bn	₦3.7bn	59%	1.9 yr
Restaurant	134	113	₦349m	₦349m	63%	1.6 yr
Clinic	101	90	₦447m	₦441m	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	90	87	₦456m	₦456m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	82	79	₦836m	₦830m	53%	1.9 yr
School	59	58	₦150m	₦150m	83%	1.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	39	34	₦17.3m	₦17.3m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	31	28	₦35.6m	₦35.6m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	21	21	₦37.3m	₦37.3m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,417	12,445	₦43.2bn	₦39.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	33,051	12,097	₦38bn	₦34.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
Enterprise	328	320	₦5.12bn	₦4.81bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	38	28	₦70.8m	₦70.8m	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	16,126	3,759	₦386m	₦386m
3.0	10,711	5,698	₦35.3bn	₦31.6bn
2.0	5,179	2,450	₦6.56bn	₦6.15bn
1.0	1,395	534	₦983m	₦955m
4.0	6	4	₦45.9m	₦45.9m