Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Adavi, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Adavi has 71,119 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.42 GWp of roof capacity. 24% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

71,119

Usable roof area

6.31 km²

1.42 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25.1bn/yr

19.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Adavi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦24.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.37tn

NPV₦196bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy29.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity114 MWp

Capex₦113bn

Year-one energy value₦81.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.82tn

NPV₦622bn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Adavi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 114 MWp
Capital cost: ₦113bn
Year 1 savings: ₦81.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦622bn
Median IRR: 71%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Adavi pays back quickly

Of the 68,880 buildings in Adavi with a modelled payback, 65.4% pay back inside five years and 19.6% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Adavi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Adavi consume 53.2 GWh/yr but want 82.5 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Adavi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Adavi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 68,880 buildings with a modelled result out of 71,119 in Adavi. 53,416 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,528 (20%)

Under 5 years45,015 (65%)

Under 7 years53,394 (78%)

Under 10 years58,398 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%57,770 (81%)

Above 15%53,416 (75%)

Above 20%47,479 (67%)

Above 25%40,062 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

51.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

202k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Adavi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Adavi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	39,057	12,194	₦13.3bn	₦13bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	17,092	3,422	₦6.27bn	₦6.07bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	5,612	915	₦3.8bn	₦3.8bn	7%	13.9 yr
E	5,293	223	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	3%	18.4 yr
A	4,065	172	₦224m	₦224m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	66,747	15,309	₦16.3bn	₦16bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	2,283	889	₦4.31bn	₦4.26bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,623	551	₦159m	₦159m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	311	143	₦4.05bn	₦3.95bn	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	116	13	₦24.4m	₦24.4m	33%	3.1 yr
Industrial	18	10	₦48.1m	₦48.1m	39%	2.6 yr
Hospitality	16	9	₦116m	₦115m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦6.3m	₦6.3m	57%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	2	0	₦398k	₦398k	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦1.17m	₦1.17m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	26,120	7,081	₦9.52bn	₦9.51bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	20,234	3,374	₦306m	₦304m	9%	9.1 yr
50 100m2	12,118	2,962	₦1.31bn	₦1.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	7,428	1,726	₦313m	₦309m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,126	1,728	₦8.5bn	₦8.21bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	93	55	₦5.1bn	₦4.96bn	47%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	53,125	13,448	₦16.6bn	₦16.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	11,238	1,754	₦3.89bn	₦3.86bn	5%	16.1 yr
Urban	4,038	853	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	1,703	488	₦952m	₦952m	29%	3.6 yr
Rural	1,015	383	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	24,372	4,064	₦1.78bn	₦1.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	12,842	2,106	₦239m	₦239m	5%	15.6 yr
Residential	9,966	4,436	₦12bn	₦11.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	9,636	3,275	₦1.44bn	₦1.43bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	4,237	548	₦393m	₦393m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	4,202	668	₦330m	₦330m	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,623	551	₦160m	₦160m	33%	3.1 yr
Duplex	1,492	212	₦112m	₦112m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	1,080	579	₦2.27bn	₦2.27bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	907	201	₦1.47bn	₦1.42bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	208	84	₦3.47bn	₦3.38bn	31%	3.4 yr
Unknown	137	44	₦306m	₦306m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	70,921	16,797	₦23.6bn	₦23.1bn
Industrial	198	129	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	68,805	15,997	₦17.2bn	₦16.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	2,000	786	₦3.83bn	₦3.78bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	314	143	₦4.05bn	₦3.95bn	43%	2.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	30,010	5,190	₦4.6bn	₦4.6bn
3.0	17,774	6,714	₦16.7bn	₦16.3bn
0.0	12,837	2,107	₦236m	₦236m
2.0	7,348	1,985	₦1.08bn	₦1.08bn
1.0	2,250	675	₦180m	₦180m
5.0	811	217	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn
6.0	89	38	₦896m	₦845m