Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Ogori/Magongo, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Ogori/Magongo has 5,648 buildings with a viable rooftop and 139 MWp of roof capacity. 21% run a generator, and together they spend ₦4.55bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

5,648

Usable roof area

619,079 m²

139 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦4.55bn/yr

3.95 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ogori/Magongo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦4.55bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦4.47bn

Lifetime cash saved₦236bn

NPV₦37bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy4.13 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity19.4 MWp

Capex₦20.4bn

Year-one energy value₦19.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦907bn

NPV₦154bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ogori/Magongo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 19.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦20.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦19.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦154bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ogori/Magongo pays back quickly

Of the 5,597 buildings in Ogori/Magongo with a modelled payback, 64.4% pay back inside five years and 21.0% inside three.

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How much of Ogori/Magongo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ogori/Magongo consume 6.64 GWh/yr but want 10.8 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ogori/Magongo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ogori/Magongo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 5,597 buildings with a modelled result out of 5,648 in Ogori/Magongo. 4,410 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,177 (21%)

Under 5 years3,607 (64%)

Under 7 years4,406 (79%)

Under 10 years4,773 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%4,696 (83%)

Above 15%4,410 (78%)

Above 20%3,834 (68%)

Above 25%3,178 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

8.52 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

2.38 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.13 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

57.1k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogori/Magongo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ogori/Magongo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	4,214	735	₦2.09bn	₦2.08bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	1,434	444	₦2.46bn	₦2.39bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	5,505	1,046	₦3.85bn	₦3.78bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	72	70	₦411m	₦411m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	47	46	₦236m	₦236m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	21	15	₦41.8m	₦41.8m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦3.25m	₦3.25m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1	0	₦5.12k	₦5.12k	17%	6.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	2,198	469	₦1.63bn	₦1.56bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	1,205	224	₦27.5m	₦27.5m	7%	13.9 yr
50 100m2	948	170	₦152m	₦149m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	744	223	₦2.54bn	₦2.54bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	546	89	₦17.8m	₦17.8m	13%	8.1 yr
Over 1000m2	7	4	₦177m	₦177m	67%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	4,421	869	₦2.65bn	₦2.65bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	825	186	₦998m	₦993m	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	402	124	₦897m	₦829m	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,520	554	₦3.63bn	₦3.56bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	1,520	295	₦33.8m	₦33.8m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Small	1,465	197	₦188m	₦185m	23%	4.9 yr
Institutional	44	41	₦261m	₦261m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	19	19	₦97.7m	₦97.7m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	19	18	₦165m	₦165m	51%	2.1 yr
School	19	18	₦45.3m	₦45.3m	81%	1.4 yr
Clinic	14	14	₦102m	₦102m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	7	5	₦2.21m	₦2.21m	55%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	7	5	₦2.1m	₦2.1m	55%	1.9 yr
Unknown	7	7	₦10.8m	₦10.8m	49%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	2	2	₦3.25m	₦3.25m	73%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	5,648	1,179	₦4.55bn	₦4.47bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	5,575	1,108	₦4.13bn	₦4.06bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	73	71	₦414m	₦414m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	2,582	678	₦4.13bn	₦4.06bn
0.0	1,513	295	₦33.8m	₦33.8m
2.0	1,233	174	₦350m	₦350m
1.0	320	32	₦30.4m	₦30.4m