Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Bassa, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Bassa has 33,136 buildings with a viable rooftop and 402 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦28bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,136

Usable roof area

1.8 km²

402 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦28bn/yr

24.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bassa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦28bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦26.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.36tn

NPV₦221bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy17.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity78.6 MWp

Capex₦83.3bn

Year-one energy value₦82.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.91tn

NPV₦671bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Bassa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 78.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦83.3bn
Year 1 savings: ₦82.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦671bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bassa pays back quickly

Of the 32,734 buildings in Bassa with a modelled payback, 61.7% pay back inside five years and 35.3% inside three.

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How much of Bassa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bassa consume 33.7 GWh/yr but want 51.4 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bassa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bassa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 32,734 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,136 in Bassa. 22,166 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,560 (35%)

Under 5 years20,187 (62%)

Under 7 years22,166 (68%)

Under 10 years23,808 (73%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,184 (70%)

Above 15%22,166 (67%)

Above 20%20,852 (63%)

Above 25%18,592 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

47.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

17.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

231k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bassa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bassa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	21,382	7,667	₦18.8bn	₦18.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	11,497	3,730	₦8.59bn	₦8bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	257	161	₦628m	₦624m	55%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	32,440	10,880	₦25.5bn	₦24.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	291	285	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	268	261	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	70	65	₦12.8m	₦12.8m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	44	44	₦20.7m	₦20.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	12	12	₦9.12m	₦9.12m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	9	9	₦30m	₦30m	71%	1.4 yr
Industrial	2	2	₦2.17m	₦2.17m	53%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	10,528	2,241	₦321m	₦319m	5%	16.1 yr
50 100m2	10,185	3,903	₦6.14bn	₦6.01bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	6,563	3,247	₦14.1bn	₦13.5bn	27%	3.9 yr
30 50m2	5,227	1,724	₦1.04bn	₦748m	15%	6.6 yr
250 1000m2	630	441	₦6.32bn	₦6.16bn	79%	1.4 yr
Over 1000m2	3	2	₦166m	₦166m	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	12,111	2,395	₦7.41bn	₦6.86bn	9%	9.4 yr
Urban	7,580	3,095	₦8.17bn	₦7.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	7,186	3,132	₦5.62bn	₦5.42bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	6,084	2,840	₦6.67bn	₦6.64bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	175	96	₦157m	₦157m	45%	2.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	13,598	5,211	₦7.91bn	₦7.49bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	13,099	2,822	₦280m	₦280m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential	5,743	2,847	₦17.3bn	₦16.6bn	27%	3.9 yr
Institutional	153	150	₦447m	₦447m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	99	96	₦782m	₦778m	53%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	79	74	₦18.7m	₦18.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Clinic	77	76	₦275m	₦275m	53%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	74	73	₦245m	₦245m	87%	1.1 yr
Commercial	69	69	₦413m	₦413m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	58	54	₦244m	₦244m	67%	1.6 yr
School	39	38	₦69.6m	₦69.6m	83%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	20	20	₦6.89m	₦6.89m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,136	11,558	₦28bn	₦26.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,717	11,149	₦26bn	₦24.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	288	282	₦1.38bn	₦1.38bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	131	127	₦664m	₦664m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	13,104	2,828	₦282m	₦282m
2.0	11,187	5,029	₦13bn	₦12.3bn
1.0	5,966	2,032	₦2.7bn	₦2.65bn
3.0	2,840	1,634	₦11.6bn	₦11.2bn
4.0	29	27	₦285m	₦285m
5.0	7	5	₦131m	₦131m
6.0	3	3	₦32.3m	₦32.3m