Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Yagba West, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Yagba West has 26,846 buildings with a viable rooftop and 476 MWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦27.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

26,846

Usable roof area

2.12 km²

476 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦27.3bn/yr

24.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yagba West

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦27.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦26.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.36tn

NPV₦215bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy20 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity78 MWp

Capex₦79.6bn

Year-one energy value₦70.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.34tn

NPV₦565bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Yagba West's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 78 MWp
Capital cost: ₦79.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦70.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦565bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yagba West pays back quickly

Of the 26,392 buildings in Yagba West with a modelled payback, 63.5% pay back inside five years and 28.3% inside three.

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How much of Yagba West's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yagba West consume 41.6 GWh/yr but want 61.6 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yagba West

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yagba West actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 26,392 buildings with a modelled result out of 26,846 in Yagba West. 19,599 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,457 (28%)

Under 5 years16,749 (63%)

Under 7 years19,596 (74%)

Under 10 years21,036 (80%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%20,724 (77%)

Above 15%19,599 (73%)

Above 20%17,684 (66%)

Above 25%15,089 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

47.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

180k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yagba West.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yagba West

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	12,973	3,740	₦13.1bn	₦12.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
E	8,997	2,828	₦10.7bn	₦10bn	21%	4.6 yr
C	4,876	877	₦3.53bn	₦3.38bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	25,419	6,270	₦21bn	₦20bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	646	577	₦4.22bn	₦4.18bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	360	290	₦113m	₦113m	49%	2.1 yr
Anchor	216	177	₦1.79bn	₦1.68bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	199	129	₦184m	₦184m	53%	1.9 yr
Industrial	4	2	₦1.19m	₦1.19m	37%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	2	0	₦593k	₦593k	29%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	8,742	2,844	₦12bn	₦11.8bn	27%	3.9 yr
Under 30m2	8,344	1,661	₦223m	₦222m	7%	14.1 yr
50 100m2	5,037	1,433	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	3,130	782	₦252m	₦252m	19%	5.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,568	709	₦12bn	₦11.3bn	29%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	25	16	₦1.25bn	₦1.12bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	13,549	3,558	₦11.7bn	₦11.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	5,108	733	₦3.06bn	₦2.8bn	5%	16.1 yr
Dense Urban	3,151	1,134	₦2.98bn	₦2.9bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	2,711	874	₦5.13bn	₦4.89bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	2,327	1,146	₦4.39bn	₦4.06bn	29%	3.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	7,953	1,858	₦192m	₦192m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Small	5,729	1,927	₦1.91bn	₦1.91bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	5,476	2,438	₦18.6bn	₦17.6bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,749	47	₦268m	₦266m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,204	0	₦36.4m	₦36.4m	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial	377	361	₦2.32bn	₦2.31bn	51%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	360	290	₦113m	₦113m	49%	2.1 yr
Duplex	239	0	₦11.8m	₦11.8m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	188	146	₦1.78bn	₦1.64bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	152	122	₦970m	₦969m	49%	2.1 yr
Apartment	69	0	₦3.22m	₦3.22m	27%	4.1 yr
Worship Center	67	44	₦20.1m	₦20.1m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	26,846	7,445	₦27.3bn	₦26.1bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	26,097	6,784	₦22.2bn	₦21.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	530	483	₦3.29bn	₦3.28bn	51%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	219	178	₦1.79bn	₦1.68bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	8,575	3,252	₦20.9bn	₦19.8bn
0.0	7,807	1,805	₦180m	₦180m
2.0	4,812	1,561	₦2.53bn	₦2.52bn
4.0	4,016	126	₦1.02bn	₦1.01bn
1.0	1,264	368	₦200m	₦200m
5.0	324	289	₦1.61bn	₦1.61bn
6.0	48	44	₦857m	₦855m