Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Omala, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Omala has 32,661 buildings with a viable rooftop and 457 MWp of roof capacity. 26% run a generator, and together they spend ₦21.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

32,661

Usable roof area

2.05 km²

457 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦21.8bn/yr

19.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Omala

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦21.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.05tn

NPV₦170bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy12 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity58.2 MWp

Capex₦61bn

Year-one energy value₦59.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.84tn

NPV₦485bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Omala's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 58.2 MWp
Capital cost: ₦61bn
Year 1 savings: ₦59.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦485bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Omala pays back quickly

Of the 32,100 buildings in Omala with a modelled payback, 51.9% pay back inside five years and 26.2% inside three.

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How much of Omala's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Omala consume 26 GWh/yr but want 37.9 GWh/yr. The 31% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Omala

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Omala actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 32,100 buildings with a modelled result out of 32,661 in Omala. 20,977 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,425 (26%)

Under 5 years16,646 (52%)

Under 7 years20,960 (65%)

Under 10 years24,251 (76%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,472 (72%)

Above 15%20,977 (64%)

Above 20%17,951 (55%)

Above 25%14,340 (44%)

CO₂ avoided

35.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

152k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Omala.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Omala

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	23,638	5,767	₦16bn	₦14.9bn	21%	4.9 yr
D	9,022	2,712	₦5.89bn	₦5.79bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	1	0	₦1.02k	₦1.02k	1%	24.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	31,603	7,432	₦19.3bn	₦18.3bn	21%	4.9 yr
Commercial General	428	424	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	353	353	₦50.7m	₦50.7m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	244	237	₦1.28bn	₦1.16bn	73%	1.4 yr
Worship	21	21	₦19.9m	₦19.9m	69%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	8	8	₦12.8m	₦12.8m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	3	3	₦861k	₦861k	55%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	1	1	₦369k	₦369k	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	10,070	2,247	₦2.43bn	₦2.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	8,671	1,886	₦241m	₦239m	7%	15.1 yr
100 250m2	7,973	2,716	₦10.8bn	₦10.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	5,053	1,084	₦393m	₦347m	11%	9.1 yr
250 1000m2	883	535	₦7.33bn	₦6.94bn	65%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	11	11	₦660m	₦660m	79%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	15,477	2,849	₦5.72bn	₦5.7bn	19%	5.9 yr
Rural	8,885	4,043	₦10.9bn	₦10.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	4,389	777	₦3.1bn	₦2.79bn	23%	4.4 yr
Urban	3,910	810	₦2.1bn	₦1.98bn	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	12,344	2,501	₦3.29bn	₦3.1bn	23%	4.9 yr
Shed	9,090	1,721	₦186m	₦186m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential	5,647	2,091	₦15bn	₦14.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	4,304	1,050	₦767m	₦767m	21%	4.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	359	359	₦54.8m	₦54.8m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	203	203	₦473m	₦473m	63%	1.6 yr
Apartment	139	47	₦34m	₦34m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	132	128	₦652m	₦652m	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	97	97	₦152m	₦152m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	81	80	₦278m	₦278m	85%	1.1 yr
Duplex	79	22	₦27.2m	₦27.2m	27%	4.1 yr
School	58	57	₦112m	₦112m	83%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	32,661	8,479	₦21.8bn	₦20.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,117	7,942	₦20bn	₦18.9bn	21%	4.9 yr
SME High	305	305	₦654m	₦654m	63%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	239	232	₦1.24bn	₦1.12bn	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	11,498	3,451	₦17.2bn	₦16.3bn
0.0	9,102	1,733	₦186m	₦186m
2.0	5,984	1,467	₦2.79bn	₦2.58bn
4.0	4,057	1,081	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn
1.0	2,018	745	₦402m	₦367m
5.0	2	2	₦24.3m	₦24.3m